Chelsea under Frank Lampard conceded 1.42 goals per game in the league last season, and that has gone up to 1.8 already this season. They have made an excellent signing in Edouard Mendy between the sticks and he will be a significant improvement on Kepa Arrizabalaga over the course of the season.
The stats suggest that playing Mendy instead of Kepa should see the rate of goals conceded by Chelsea reduce by 0.3! That’s just with Mendy performing to an average standard. Yes, Kepa really was that bad. Still though, the concern is that after conceding three against both West Brom and Southampton, can you really see United not scoring here?
It’s very likely The Red Devils get at least one (probably from a penalty… again). On the flipside, Chelsea are extremely good going forward. New signings Timo Werner and Kai Havertz are up and running now. Just as important as those two, is the return from injury of the very impressive Christian Pulisic.
United have conceded 12 goals in four games in the league. They even have their own strikers proving clinical from corners, in the wrong box, as seen in the PSG game (Anthony Martial is still suspended for this league game, by the way). Question again, can you really see Chelsea not scoring against this United defence? Therefore, Both Teams to Score is a solid leg for your punt.
Since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer stepped into the dugout Man United have won an incredible 39 penalties. As a comparison, Arsenal have only had nine in the same period. I use the word won as opposed to awarded for a very good reason.
Winning penalties is a repeatable skill. A good example was Martial’s spot kick against PSG on Tuesday night. United were also awarded three penalties in four of their games against Chelsea last season, including a consolation one in the FA Cup semi-final which Fernandes scored. Bruno Fernandes is threat in open play too, so even if United don’t get a penalty this time, there is still a chance Fernandes scores anyway.
Since joining Chelsea, Jorginho has been booked in every four games in the league (18 yellows in 72 appearances) on average. He is more likely to be booked in some games than others and this is one of those games.
The Blues won’t be 3-0 up and comfortable here. It will be tight and competitive. Jorginho sits behind the play, rarely gets ahead of the ball. So, when Chelsea get turned over high up the pitch and United break at speed (like we saw against PSG), then Jorginho will have to get cynical.
He will happily take one for the team, pull down or trip someone to stop a United attack. He was booked against Sevilla during the week and probably should have been sent off for a second offence too. The Italian was also booked in this fixture last season for tripping. If you are putting in a player to be booked selection, then this is strong pick.
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