Wednesday night’s European action will be the last we see of UEFA’s Nations League until next month. We’ve had some cracking matches over the international break and we’ve had a look at some of the best fixtures from League A to find some value in the markets tonight.
Croatia can try and get their own back on a France side that really humbled them in Paris a month ago with a 4-2 beating. Since then, Croatia have gone on to beat Switzerland 2-1 in a friendly and Sweden 2-1 at home in the Nations League. France thumped Ukraine 7-1 and drew 0-0 with Portugal since then, both on home soil.
There tends to be plenty of goals when Croatia play at home, with all of their last nine home matches seeing Over 2.5 goals landing. However, when France play away Over 2.5 goals has only occurred in two out of six matches. France scored at least one in five of those matches though so should be good enough for a goal here. We’re getting some nice value on Overs 2.5 Goals here with those stats so we’re going with that.
Belgium are massive favourites here even after their loss to England at the weekend. Iceland aren’t in good shape, having only won one of their last four matches and lost all of the other three. Belgium have won two, drawn one and lost one of their last four. Just looking at Iceland’s home form, it looks a bit better with four wins over their last six but those four wins weren’t against anyone any good (Andorra, Canada, El Salvador for example) so we can’t really rely on the results.
Belgium have won five out of their last six away matches and for four of those matches they kept the home side scoreless. When Iceland have played ‘better’ sides at home of late (England and Denmark) they lost both of those matches without scoring. We’re backing Both Teams to Score – No here.
Italy have now gone 18 matches without a defeat, which is an incredibly impressive run on the international stage. Looking at home matches, we have to go all the way back to September 2016 to find the last time they lost on Italian soil – a run of 22 matches. The Netherlands have hit some bad form of late, losing to both Italy and Mexico at home and drawing 0-0 with Bosnia & Herzegovina a few days ago.
The Italians were wasteful against Poland over the weekend and we should see striker Ciro Immobile getting back into the starting lineup thanks to that result. The Dutch are, of course, a good side but they’re really struggling for goals of late and against an Italian side at home they’re likely to struggle again. We’re backing Italy to Win here.
All the headlines with this one are about Cristiano Ronaldo contracting the dreaded virus but they’ll still be confident of getting the three points here. They’ve unbeaten over their 11 home matches since the Russian World Cup. Sweden, meanwhile, have won just one of their last four matches, losing all three of the others. While the hosts are strong at home it’s worth mentioning that only four of those 11 matches saw Over 2.5 goals occurring.
With Ronaldo out Atletico Madrid’s Joao Felix will be relishing the chance to grab a few of his own headlines, it’ll be him and Benfica’s Andre Silva leading the line here and we like the look of Felix firing one into the Swedish net tonight.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget but are subject to change
UEFA Nations League Acca – Wednesday, October 14
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