No doubt most eyes will be on the Nations League on Tuesday night but the second round of matches in South America for World Cup qualification are also happening and well worthy of our attention. Argentina face a mountainous task going up against Bolivia at high altitude, Venezuela and Paraguay will be fighting it out for their first victory of the campaign and Brazil are also in action. Let’s have a look at where we’ve found some value in these matches.
Since 2009, Bolivia have taken on Argentina three times at the Estadio Hernando Siles, a stadium at an altitude of over 3000m above sea level. Most of these Argentine players hail from the coast of Argentina and play for European teams not located too far from water as well – so this is an absolute lung-buster of a place to play and they’re going to find it very tough.
It’s easy to see the Argentines have the better squad on paper and while Bolivia aren’t particularly good when they’re playing teams away, they’ve now gone eight matches without defeat on home soil. The market is backing the away side here but that’s what happens when you have someone like Lionel Messi playing for one of the teams. He’s featured in all three of those matches since 2009, he couldn’t help Argentina then and we don’t think they’ll be able to cope with the high altitude again. There’s good value to be had backing Bolivia Double Chance here.
Paraguay will be relishing their chances here. Over their three most recent visits to Venezuela they’ve won two and drawn one – all of which were also World Cup qualifiers. Both sides though are in pretty similar form. Venezuela have won two, drawn one and lost two of their five most recent at home while Paraguay have also won two, drawn one and lost two.
Venezuela took a bit of a beating at the hands of Colombia in their opening match on Saturday, losing 3-0 away from home, and will be eager to get that loss out of their system here with a win. Paraguay drew 2-2 in their opener with Peru, with all four goals coming in the second half. We’re looking at Both Teams to Score here, as the onus will be on the home side to go for the three points to make up for that loss to Colombia which will mean Paraguay can catch them on the counter – just like they did against Peru at the weekend.
As mentioned above, Peru got their qualification hopes off to a solid start with a 2-2 draw away to Paraguay while Brazil stuffed Bolivia 5-0 at home. The Brazilians are obviously favourites here again but over their four most recent visits to Peru they’ve only won two, with the other two games ending in draws.
This Peruvian side don’t have a good record though, only winning one of their last five at home and scoring just two goals over those matches. Brazil have now gone 20 away matches without a loss and amazingly they’ve kept their opponents scoreless in nine out of their last 10 away matches. With that record, and facing off against a Peruvian side who are struggling for goals, we’re backing Brazil to Win to Nil here.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget
Paddy’s Tuesday treble
- Combining the above 3 best in a Paddy Power treble clocks in at around 8/1
- All odds correct at time of publication
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