Sunday night’s European action sees teams from League’s A, B and C going at each other. We’re going to be a bit snobby here and look at four matches from League A where we’re found some interesting stats and some value in the betting markets.
Bosnia have a better reputation it would seem than their latest results would suggest. Over their three most recent matches they’ve failed to win all three. Most of the footballing public had thought that the Netherlands were going to build on their success at the Nations League in 2019, losing to Portugal in the final.
They’ve won six of their nine matches since but looking at their fixtures, apart from Germany who they beat 2-4, they’ve not really played anyone who is any good. They beat a Robert Lewandowski-less B Team for Poland and lost to both Italy and Mexico over their three most recent matches.
It would seem like this is the perfect game for both teams to rekindle their form, however Bosnia are going to be still reeling from their penalty loss to Northern Ireland and manager Dusan Bajevic’s will be trying to motivate his players to avoid a bottom-placed finish in the group here. We’re tempted to back the Dutch but they’re just not in the form, both should be good for a goal though so that’s what we’re going with.
Croatia have recently lost to both Portugal and France but they did beat Switzerland in a friendly on Wednesday night. Sweden have also lost to both Portugal and France but beat Russia 1-2 on Thursday night.
Croatia at home are a different animal though, they’ve played nine matches on Croatian soil since the last World Cup, winning seven, drawing one and losing one. Their first match, against England, was the only one where they were kept scoreless in a 0-0 draw. Sweden’s form has improved of late, they won just two away matches in 2018.
Since 2019 they’ve lost just one of their six matches, a 4-0 thrashing away to Spain. Over 2.5 goals has landed in five from five recent home Croatia matches and in four out of five for Sweden and with both teams in good goal-scoring form we like the look of Over 2.5 goals at odds that are still over Evens.
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This will be the first meeting between the pair since Portugal beat France to win the European Championship in 2016. Both teams are in good shape here, France have won nine and drawn one over their 10 most recent matches. They’ve played 12 home matches since the last World Cup, winning 10 and drawing two, they’ve scored a hatful of those matches but only have four matches where they kept a Clean Sheet.
Portugal have played eight away matches since the World Cup, winning seven and losing one, five of which saw Over 2.5 Goals landing. With both teams scoring for fun of late we have to go with goals here.
Poland have lost just one of their last eight fixtures but those matches were against the likes of Slovenia, Latvia and Israel among them. Against decent sides like Austria and Netherlands they drew and lost, both at home.
Italy have now gone 14 matches without defeat, winning 12 and drawing two. Away from home they’ve won all seven of their most recent fixtures. Poland are decent on their day but just don’t have the squad strength of Italy, especially at the back. We’re going with the away side here, they’re in better scoring form and have the stronger squad.
*All odds correct at time of publication
Our tips for Sunday’s international action
All four of these picks into a four-fold Acca will give you odds of 16/1.
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