Manchester City started their campaign strongly at Molineux on Monday night, beating Wolves 3-1 in what was expected to be a very difficult opening to their Premier League season (xG: WOL 0.80 – 2.04 MCI).
Despite multiple absentees, Pep Guardiola’s side looked as sharp as ever going forward, and fairly solid in defence — barring a couple of nervy moments in the second half. They return to home comforts for another tough test.
City’s potent attacking unit are rarely shackled at the Etihad Stadium, though, averaging 2.67 xGF per game en route to scoring 57 goals as hosts in the Premier League last season.
Leicester followed up their comfortable opening day win at West Brom with a 4-2 comeback victory over Burnley on Sunday night, sitting top of the Premier League on goal difference as a result.
Underlying numbers show their performance wasn’t as impressive as the scoreline might suggest last time out (xG: LEI 1.33 – 1.43 BUR), but the Foxes displayed a ruthlessness in front of goal that would serve them well against the title favourites.
Brendan Rodgers’ side have proven they can carve out plenty of scoring opportunities when playing on the road, too, averaging 1.89 xGF per game away from home last season.
2019/20 Premier League Golden Boot winner Jamie Vardy will worry City on the counter, possessing the necessary skills to threaten a susceptible defence.
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Vardy, who scored 23 goals from 19.44 xG last season, continue his solid start to the campaign as Both Teams Score, here.
Our model fancies City to Win this game comfortably (68%), but, given Leicester’s propensity to create good chances away from home, there’s value in backing both teams to score.
Infogol’s model calculates a 61% of that outcome, making BTTS a solid selection.
Gabriel Jesus usually leads the line in the absence of Sergio Agüero, often proving to be a more than able deputy, but crucially misses out here due to injury. He led the league in non-penalty expected goals per average match last season (0.89 xG/avg match), leaving a huge hole at the head of the City attack.
The onus will be on Raheem Sterling, who averaged 0.68 xG/avg match in a 20-goal 2019/20 season, to pick up the slack.
Infogol’s Same Game Multi for Man City v Leicester on Sunday at 16:30
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Learn more about the Same Game Multi here.
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