This year’s UEFA Super Cup takes place in the Puskas Arena in Budapest where Champions League winners Bayern Munich take on the Europa League winners Sevilla.
Bayern are, obviously, massive favourites coming into the clash and while those odds aren’t exactly screaming at us, we’re gone into the markets to find a healthy looking Same Game Multi.
Read on to find out what we’re backing and why:
While Bayern Munich put a whopping eight goals past Schalke in their opening Bundesliga match last weekend, Sevilla are yet to start their league campaign.
Looking at the form of both teams over their recent European successes, Bayern playing four matches in their run to the final (following the break in play), with Sevilla also playing four; both teams won all their matches in 90 minutes and Over 3.5 goals landed in two of Bayern’s four matches and it occurred in just one of Sevilla’s – the final against Inter.
No doubt here who the better team is on paper and the one with far more goals in the squad. What’s swinging us here though is that steely-Sevilla defence which only conceded 0.89 goals per La Liga match last season and in their five matches in the Europa League, after falling out of the Champions League, they kept three Clean Sheets during their march to yet another Europa League trophy.
Of course, Bayern love to turn the screw and humiliate teams (hello Chelsea and Barcelona), but against more defensive-minded teams they have no problem sitting back and waiting to strike (hello Lyon and PSG).
The market is going the other way, but Sevilla should keep the scoreline down here.
Most of the action for both teams here tends to occur in the second half of matches and this being a chance to land some early silverware in the season both, won’t want to put a foot wrong in the opening 45 minutes.
Bayern like to come at teams early in matches and try and get an early goal, but we’ve seen time and again that if they don’t score in the first 15-20 minutes they’re happy to ease the pressure a bit and work on breaking down teams.
We reckon we’re going to see most of the attacking football in the second period of play and Bayern to get at least two second half goals at this price is very decent indeed.
Serge Gnabry opened his account for the season after just four minutes against Schalke and went on to add two more in the second half. Leroy Sane looks to have already settled in as well, scoring one and assisting two of Gnabry’s three.
Of course, much of the market looks towards Robert Lewandowski for scoring bets but Gnabry’s European form is nearly off the charts, scoring nine in 10 Champions League appearances.
With him already in great goal-scoring form and with that European record, we reckon he’s going to add to his tally against Sevilla here.
- A Same Game Multi on these three best bets pays at 23/1 with Paddy Power. Odds are subject to change.
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