After that thrilling finale to PSG and Atalanta’s one-legged Champions League quarter final yesterday, it’s all eyes on RB Leipzig vs Atletico Madrid tonight. While Kylian Mbappe, Neymar, *checks notes* Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting and the rest threw up a slick, quick and incisive comeback to claim an unlikely-looking 2-1 triumph late on over their Italian opponents, you might want to brace yourself for something completely different tonight at 20:00.
Yes, it’s the archetypal sh*thouses Atleti vs the team vying for the title of Germany’s most despised club, RB Leipzig. Both sides finished third in the league and some way off the eventual title winners, so what does their recent form tell us about their chances here?
You have to go back 19 games, all the way to February, for Diego Simeone’s side’s last defeat which came at the hands of La Liga champions Real Madrid. Pretty impressive. In that run of 18 unbeaten, they drew 7 and won 11. Those 18 games included two wins over Liverpool and a draw away at Barcelona. Surprise, surprise, Atletico are hard to beat but a little uninspired going forward. Who would have guessed?
For RB, their last defeat came just three games back against Borussia Dortmund and they share a similar story to Atleti – too many draws to mount a serious challenge for the title. In their last 10 they’ve won four, drawn five and lost just that one. So what are we backing tonight?
Well, one of these teams is rock-solid, has done it all before, are incredibly difficult to beat and will have Diego Simeone ‘encouraging’ them from the touchline for 90 minutes. The other team is without their star man, Timo Werner, who has joined Chelsea, leaving his old team-mates looking absolutely bereft of goals. This is all pointing to an Atleti win.
There’s plenty of ways to go in this one, but the safest bet by a long way looks to be Atleti to qualify. This takes into account extra time and penalties if the Spaniards decide to play it super-safe, even by their stoic standards. The odds are, admittedly, not amazing but this just feels like a banker and a win’s a win, right?
For a bit more value it’s worth dipping a toe into the #WhatOddsPaddy markets. On the basis that Werner scored 32 goals in all competitions this season, 19 more than any of his team-mates, it’s hard to see RB getting it done here without him.
Atleti rarely score more than two (they’ve scored more than 2.5 goals once in their last nine games) therefore Atletico Madrid Win 1-0; 2-0 or 2-1 looks very tempting. RB are obviously a good team and them netting is not completely beyond comprehension, but them scoring more than once is hard to fathom and it feels like Atleti have enough to get it done in 90 minutes without running riot.
There are some interesting markets on Alvaro Morata in this game, especially Alvaro Morata Over 0.5 Shots On Target in Each Half at 4/1 (the equivalent bet on Neymar came in yesterday and Morata’s basically just going to be stood in the box with Atleti looking to get it to his feet), but we’re not sure if Simeone will pluck for Diego Costa instead, so it’s worth keeping an eye on the line ups when they come out if you fancy that.
To play it a bit safer and with nice odds I’ll instead recommend Atletico Madrid scores 1+ goals & 5+ Atletico Madrid corners based on everything outlined previously. Set pieces are a bedrock of Atleti’s game plan so you can expect them to be eyeing corners, and they may even grab the winner from one.
Tips for RB Leipzig vs Atletico Madrid tonight at 20:00
*The odds are always bang up to date on our clever betting widgets*
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