We are nearly there folks, as the marathon of football comes to a close we will surely look back in the years to come and think back ‘that was a little mad wasn’t it?’
Well timed and well needed as I for one was getting tired of following Slavia Mozyr duke it out of a weekend in the Belarusian Premier League.
Hopefully, I can forget that ever happened. Well enough of me, lets talk real football (sorry Belarus).
Wolves had a solid chance of solidifying a top five finish for a while there, but two costly successive defeats to Arsenal and Sheff Utd ended all hopes. Now the mission is to fend off Spurs and get that last European spot, which is possible due to City winning the EFL cup.
It is quite fortunate for Nuno Espirito Santo’s team that there are playing a team in Palace who have been on the staycation in London since Lockdown. Sure, they won their first match back beating the hapless Bournemouth team, but ever since there’s been six successive defeats and they haven’t scored in five of those matches.
As per understat.com in those five games without scoring only once, at home to Burnley, did their xG figure hit 1.00 or higher. They have only scored 30 goals all season, which puts them narrowly ahead of Norwich as the divisions worst offensive team and when we examine the xG table Palace are bottom!
In fairness to Roy’ Hodgson’s men they did have a decent defensive record for goals conceded until this horrid run, but their are still a top ten team for keeping goals out!
Wolves have the best defensive record according to xG, which has them conceding only 35.79 goals when in reality they’ve let in 38. That’s a fine record any team would be proud of.
To put that in context Liverpool, who are the league’s best defence have an xGa figure of 36.85. Wolves aren’t bad at the other end too and that’s where ultimately matches are won. I believe they should have enough to pry the door open eventually.
Wolves average 1.39 goals at home, which isn’t a jaw dropping figure on face value. Meanwhile, Palace average a lowly 0.89 goals scored away from home.
The match earlier on in the season was a 1-1 stalemate, but it doesn’t make sense for the home team – who will be required to take the initiative – to be happy settling for a point. Palace would surely be delighted, but it’s another case of them actually being able to be solid for the whole game and then score if they do concede, which has been a regular thing post Lockdown.
The Wolves price is short because only Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs have won at the Molineux.
Palace, for their part, have been so poor lately it’s hard to see anything changing and with star man Raul Jimenez in the goals at the moment, it’s going to be a long afternoon for the men from London. With all this in mind lets take a look at few bets.
Wolves to win & Under 3.5 goals has clicked in six of the last Wolves wins at home and seems a safe bet to include on Monday.
Jimenez is Wolves’ top goalscorer and has been banging them in with two in his last two to boot. He seems the natural selection to cause more heartbreak on Palace fans, who are also missing Cahill and Tomkins in central defence.
Expect a lot of pressure on that makeshift Eagles defence, so the corner count should be racking up for the home side too.
Lastly, I will go for a correct score of 2-1 to Wolves. While Palace have been poor I reckon this will have the end of season game feel for them with little on the line bar pride.
Wolves should have enough in the tank but if Palace can go out and play without pressure, star men Zaha and Ayew might be able to help them notch like they did earlier in the season against Wolves.
* Prices on our snazzy new bet widget are bang up to date.
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