So as things stand going into Tuesday’s Premier League tie between Chelsea and Norwich, The Blues have about a 75% chance of finishing in the top four and Norwich have already been relegated following a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of West Ham, who were only four places above them in the table.
So what does this mean? Well, it looks as though we may not have a ‘competitive’ fixture on our hands, but that really isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
Chelsea will surely look to play to their strengths and put out their strongest 11, while who knows what team Norwich will play. Last weekend saw some very strange results in the EPL, Liverpool drawing at home to Burnley, Chelsea being dismantled in the steel city and Spurs winning!
Anyway, my point is when we are unsure of the teams’ motivation and what pressures certain players have on or off them, so looking at slightly less mainstream markets are places where value can be found.
Chelsea are heavy favourites to win this game and yeah, they will probably win, but I don’t believe that’s where our plays will be.
Frank Lampard’s men have conceded 7 goals in their last four games with no distinctive pattern as to how or why. They were just awful last week against Sheffield United with their best player on the pitch being a 20-year-old full back Reece James.
The Chelsea players committed a high number of individual errors culminating in this 3-0 loss. From where I sit, this shows the signs of a team whose interest in the season has peaked and we may see a very different game of football.
With this in mind, we will look at our first two bets.
I won’t be expecting miracles this week, but both of the above are priced enough that I will make a play on each.
Players who haven’t scored this season in games where there isn’t much to play for apart from pride, dignity and a shiny new contract, often represent value and they may hang around in the box a bit more than they should in the hope of a pop at goal.
Emiliano Buendia opened his season account the game before last and at nicely priced odds to score first or any time, we will take our chances with him to double his season tally.
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