Friday night football this week has a distinctly Iberian flavour, we’re looking at two matches from Spain’s La Liga and two from Portugal’s Primeira Liga.
Real Madrid are chasing their 34th league title while the other three games involve teams chasing the final European places for next season. Can we find value in the markets though? That’s the important question.
18.30: Real Sociedad vs Granada – Over 2.5 Goals
Sociedad find themselves in seventh, the final European football place, on 51 points, two below Getafe and one above Valencia. They’ve not been the best since the restart; winning just one of their seven matches, drawing two and losing four.
Really, it’s Valencia’s bad form that has seen them slip down the rankings and Sociedad have moved up the table. They can capitalise here but will know too well that Granada’s away form has seen them go five matches without defeat.
Sociedad have won nine, drawn three and lost just five matches at home this season, Granada have won four, drawn five and lost eight on the road. Sociedad have beaten Granada in five out of five previous meetings home and away with Over 2.5 goals occurring in four of those five matches.
Sociedad are getting most of the action on the market here but their record just isn’t good enough of late for us. Both are in robust goal-scoring form though, scoring 1.82 and 1.24 goals on average each and conceding 1.0 and 1.53 so we should see goals and getting Over 2.5 at these odds is definitely worth a nibble.
19.15: Sporting vs Santa Clara – Sporting to Win to Nil
Sporting are unbeaten since the Liga Nos returned to action, winning four and drawing two of their matches. Their home record is impressive too, they’ve won eight out of their eight most recent fixtures at the Estadio Jose Alvalade.
Santa Clara have won two, drawn two and lost two. Santa Clara have only played Sporting nine times in their history, losing seven and drawing two.
Sporting have kept two Clean Sheets against Santa Clara in their four home matches against them and have kept four Clean Sheets over their five most previous home matches, match this with one of the lowest goals concession rates in the league, at just 0.87 goals per game we’re getting great odds here with Sporting to Win to Nil.
21.00: Real Madrid vs Alaves – Real Madrid to Win to Nil
With Barcelona beating Espanyol 1-0 on Wednesday night, Real Madrid are one point ahead with this game in hand. Of course, Real are massive favourites here as can been seen by the prices in the Win/Draw/Win market.
Real are now on a run of seven wins in a row, the last three have all been 1-0 wins and in four out of their last five wins at home they’ve kept their opponents scoreless.
Alaves on their last four visits to Real have failed to score against Los Blancos and have failed to score in five of their seven matches since La Liga restarted. We’re getting decent odds here with those stats so we’re backing Real to Win to Nil here again.
21.30: Ferreira vs Braga – Both Teams to Score
Braga go into this match knowing a victory would put them above Sporting in the table, they’ll know too though that Sporting are likely to win at a canter. Ferreira have been decent since the restart, winning four and losing two. Braga have only won two, drawn one and lost three.
Ferreira don’t have a great home scoring average, at just 0.80 but they have scored in four of their six matches since the restart. They’re conceding 1.07 goals on average at home.
Braga are scoring 1.60 on average on the road and conceding 1.20. We’re looking at BTTS here, a bet that would have won in four out of five previous meetings between the sides.
These 4 selections in an acca will give you odds of over 13/1 with Paddy Power.
Tips for Friday night’s European action
18.30 Real Sociedad vs Granada: Over 2.5 Goals
19.15 Sporting vs Santa Clara: Sporting to Win to Nil
21.00 Real Madrid vs Alaves: Real Madrid to Win to Nil
21.30 Ferreira vs Braga: Both Teams to Score
We’ve got a PP News Power Price Special for tonight’s matches in the widget below.
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