Tottenham Expected Goals
It feels as though it’s one step forward and two steps back for Tottenham, who followed up their 2-0 win over West Ham that ended a seven-game winless run in all competitions with a 3-1 defeat at Sheffield United on Thursday, despite having a much longer rest period than their hosts.
Spurs went off at an absurd price at Bramall Lane for a team with only three away wins all season, with it appearing as though recency bias of a 2-0 win over West Ham had charmed many into think that ‘Spurs were back’.
The disallowed VAR equaliser was a bitter pill to swallow, but still they were only 1-0 down at the time and didn’t kick on at all, instead conceding two ‘big’ chances (66% and 51%) in the second half to see them lose.
Tottenham have issues at both ends of the pitch, make no mistake about it, with a sub-par attacking process under Mourinho (1.5 xGF per game) and a bottom half defensive process (1.7 xGA per game).
All of that means that Spurs haven’t improved since the arrival of the Portuguese manager, posting the 11th best xGD as can be seen above, while sitting 12th on xPoints.
The below rolling form chart shows that, while there was an initial improvement in both attack and defence, that has well and truly reverted now, with the gap between Spurs’ xGA and xGF getting wider which isn’t a good sign.
For those of you pointing towards the fact that this game is at home and that Spurs have won the fourth most points on home turf since Mourinho arrived (19), based on xPoints Tottenham have been the 14th best home team since 20th November, with a process of 1.5 xGF and 1.6 xGA per game.
Everton Expected Goals
Everton are unbeaten since the league restart, and have impressed in their three matches, beating Liverpool on the xG battle before winning comfortably at Norwich and edging our Leicester thanks to a good first half.
Seven points from three games have moved them to 11th in the league, but the Toffees come into this game just a point behind Tottenham, and three behind seventh placed Sheffield United – so they have a shot at finishing in a European place with six games remaining.
Their performances all season have warranted just that, as mentioned above, with Everton sitting sixth in our xG table, and the improvement since Carlo Ancelotti’s appointment has been profound, especially in attack.
The Toffees have averaged 1.9 xGF per game since the Italian’s arrival, with only Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea having generated more xGF than Everton in that time.
Defensively they have also improved slightly too, and on the whole the team looks much more settled defensively in a 4-4-2 system.
All three of Everton’s defeats under Ancelotti have come away from home, and though that is the case, since Ancelotti arrived Everton rank as the third best away team in the league according to xPoints, with their process on the road actually the best in the Premier League since Christmas (1.9 xGF, 1.3 xGA per game). That is impressive.
Overall, things at Everton are extremely positive as the season reaches its climax, not only for next season, but for the remainder of 19/20 with them having plenty to play for.
It is extremely fascinating to see what has happened to these two clubs since the managerial changes.
From a process standpoint, only Carlo Ancelotti has improved his side, and Everton sit comfortably above Spurs in our xG table, with a far superior process. On average this season, Everton have been +0.6 xGD per game better than Spurs, and that is reflected in the way the model has priced this game up.
Tottenham are priced up as short favourites to win the game, but the Infogol model actually makes Everton the favourites to emerge victorious.
The main bet in this game then is to oppose Spurs by backing Everton or Draw, given that the model doesn’t even think they should be favourites for the game – as was the case against Sheffield United last Thursday.
* Prices on our snazzy new bet widget are bang up to date.
- All the latest football previews from across the Premier League and Europe are just a click away
- Placing bets is easier than ever with Paddy Power News’ live odds banners
- BT Sport set to give viewers option of Michael Owen or crowd noise at half-time
- Barcelona Transfer Blunders: How to squander a BILLION quid