Saturday sees the conclusion of Germany’s Bundesliga and we take a look at two intriguing matches where the final Champions League place will be decided. We return to Turkey where second-placed Trabzonspor can overtake league leaders Basaksehir, and head to Italy where Italy Lazio can close the gap on league leaders Juventus. Meanwhile in Spain Atletico Madrid can extend their unbeaten run to nine against Alaves.
More importantly, though, where is the value in the markets?
‘Gladbach are currently fourth on 62 points, Bayer Leverkusen are fifth on 60. ‘Gladbach’s goal difference is 25, Leverkusen’s is 16 so a draw will secure Champions League football for ‘Gladbach. As you know though, if you need a draw in football you should play for the win first. Coming up against Hertha Berlin too, ‘Gladbach have an impressive record of 16 wins, nine draws and just six losses over 31 home matches and over their five most recent meetings at Borussia Park they’ve won 4/5.
‘Gladbach have an impressive home scoring record at 2.38 but their defence has been leaky this season, allowing 1.25 goals, Hertha have averaged 1.50 goals per away game and conceded 1.56. Goals look to be on the menu here and you’d expect the home side to come out on top too so we’re backing ‘Gladbach to Win and Over 2.5 Goals.
Leverkusen aren’t going to give up without a fight though, and will be confident of getting the three points here having lost just four home Bundesliga games this season. Mainz won’t roll over, however, in their last away match they beat Dortmund 0-2 and have nothing to lose here.
The home side have a good home scoring record at 1.94 per match but have been conceding 1.38. Mainz have been averaging 1.63 per away match and conceding 2.19. This could be the tie of the day and with both teams in great goal scoring form we’re backing Over 3.5 goals here, a bet that would have won in 5/5 previous home Leverkusen matches in all competitions.
Trabzonspor have now gone 10 matches unbeaten at home in all competitions and can overtake league leaders Basaksehir with a win here. The away side are bottom of the league and from 35 matches played against Trabzonspor away from home they’ve only ever won two.
Trabzonspor have won 5/5 previous home matches and Over 2.5 goals has landed in all, we’re looking at that trend continuing here.
Lazio are yet to lose at home this season in the Serie A, having won 11 and drawn three matches. Fiorentina aren’t great on the road with four wins, four draws and five losses. Add to this Lazio have beaten Fiorentina in 6/10 previous meetings in Rome and the home side should win here.
The odds reflect how the market sees this one going. With an average goals per home game for Lazio at 2.79 (conceding 0.71) and Fiorentina’s away matches seeing 1.46 scored and conceded we’re tempted to go with Lazio to Win and Overs here but we must add this will be Lazio’s first home match since the restart so we’ll err on the side of caution here and back the home side to win.
Atletico have looked impressive since the restart, taking 10 points from a possible twelve, keeping three clean sheets in the process. Alaves on the other hand have lost three and won one. These teams have only met 19 times in the league, nine times at Atletico’s home ground and the hosts have won six, there have been two draws and one win for Alaves and that was in 2003.
Atletico have one of the stingiest defences in the league, conceding just 0.60 goals per home match, Alaves are scoring just 0.73 goals on the road and with Atletico looking like a revived team following the break in play they’re unlikely to find the back of the net. Atletico should win this and keep yet another Clean Sheet so we’re backing Atletico to Win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0.
All five of these picks into a 5-fold Acca will give you odds of over 15/1.
European football tips for Saturday
14.30 – Borussia Monchengladbach vs Hertha Berlin: Gladbach to Win & Over 2.5 Goals
14.30 – Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz: Over 3.5 Goals
19.00 – Trabzonspor vs Ankaragucu: Trabzonspor to Win & Over 2.5 Goals
20.45 – Lazio vs Fiorentina: Lazio to Win
21.00 – Atletico Madrid vs Alaves: Atletico to Win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0
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