Football tips: Infogol’s Super Sunday punts for Aston Villa v Chelsea

Aston Villa benefitted from a technological mistake in midweek, but it was a promising performance overall, limiting their opponents to almost nothing in attack (0.38 xGA).

Despite that being the best defensive performance Villa have put in all season, previous form has shown they can’t be trusted to repeat the feat.

Dean Smith’s side remain the worst backline in the league based on xG, conceding chances equating to an average of 2.38 xGA per game.

They do possess a better attacking process than the majority of their relegation rivals, though, especially when playing at Villa Park, averaging an impressive 1.70 xGF per game.

Tyrone Mings

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Chelsea lead the race for the final Champions League qualification spot upon resumption of their Premier League campaign, and deservedly so according to xG.

Frank Lampard’s side have been exemplary from a data standpoint this season, averaging 2.06 xGF and 1.19 xGA per game.

That means holding an impressive gap between their rolling xG trendlines.

Chelsea 10-game Rolling xG Average – Premier League 2019/20

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Despite displaying the ability to create scoring opportunities on the road (1.65 xGF per game), Chelsea have looked vulnerable at the back away from home.

They have allowied chances equating to 1.47 xGA per game on average – a 0.54 jump from their home number (0.93).

Tammy Abraham is in contention to start against his former loan side having missed Chelsea’s last three games due to injury.

The signing of Timo Werner has exerted a little extra pressure on the youngster to perform in the final games of the season, but he has largely delivered for his club.

Abraham sits behind only Roberto Firmino in non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) recorded this campaign, scoring his 13 goals from 14.63 NPxG, and will undoubtedly get chances against a leaky Villa defence.

Non-penalty Expected Goal Leaders – Premier League 2019/20

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Infogol’s model believes Chelsea should win this game comfortably (66%), but we also see value in backing over 3.5 goals here at, with the model giving a 42% chance of three goals or more in this match-up.