Bayern Munich face Eintracht Frankfurt in the semifinal of the DFB Pokal on Wednesday night, they’re massive favourites at 1/10 and are looking to extend their record to winning the cup for a twentieth time. More importantly for us though, can we get any value in the markets?
Writing about a Bundesliga encounter between the two at the Allianz a few weeks ago we found an interesting stat; Eintracht have faced Bayern 49 times in the league (including that match we previewed), scoring 47 goals, so an average of 0.96 goals per match. However, Bayern’s clean sheet record is one of the best in the league at 0.87 goals per game. Frankfurt though have scored in all of their away matches since the restart.
It won’t be easy for the away side, Bayern’s clean sheet record is very, very good but they have conceded in 2/4 previous home games and in 5/10. Frankfurt on their travels though have scored in 7/10 previous matches and have scored at least one in 4/5 previous away matches at Bayern, indeed they beat the Bavarians 1-3 here in the Cup in 2018.
Bayern are scoring 60% of their goals in the second half of matches, at home in the Bundesliga their record is 31 second-half goals over 15 matches, that’s an average of 2.06 goals per match. Looking at form, Bayern have scored Over 1.5 SH goals in just two of their five matches since the restart, however, at home in the league they’ve scored Over 1.5 SH goals in 4/5 previous home matches and in 8/10. We see that trend continuing here.
For this bet to win we need Bayern to win by three clear goals, something Bayern have done in 2/5 matches since the restart and have done in 3/6 previous home league matches. In 4/5 previous meetings between the pair at the Allianz in Munich, Bayern have won this match by three goals or more and as they march towards yet another DFB final we feel they will again beat Eintracht by a similar scoreline.