Frankfurt made light work of Werder Bremen in midweek, building on an impressive win over Wolfsburg last weekend and their form looks to have picked up.
Performances have been good too of late, especially in attack, having generated an average of 2.0 xGF per game since the restart. They should be licking their lips at the thought of playing Mainz this weekend.
The visitors in this game are now nervously looking over their shoulders at the relegation zone, as they sit just a point above the play-off place after a 1-0 loss at home to Hoffenheim last weekend.
Since the resumption, Mainz have been extremely poor at both ends of the pitch (1.2 xGF, 2.6 xGA per game), but especially defensively, and they could be on the end of a thumping here.
Bayer Leverkusen beat Freiburg last weekend to bounce back from a surprisingly poor result at home to Wolfsburg, but in both games they were second best according to expected goals.
Their home process is strong (2.2 xGF, 1.3 xGA per game), and they have a good recent record against Bayern (having won 3-1 last season at BayArena and 2-1 at the Allianz this season), with their counter attacking abilities capable of hurting Bayern.
Defensively they are vulnerable though, allowing 5.3 xGA across two games against two of the best six teams in the Bundesliga since the restart (Gladbach and Wolfsburg).
Bayern Munich thumped Fortuna last weekend 5-0 in a crushing display, meaning they are just three wins from another title. Performances and underlying metrics under Hans-Dieter Flick have both improved immensely.
They are a team averaging 3.0 xGF per game, so will likely breach Bayer a few times here, and we reckon they will get the three points. However, a better price can be by combining the away win with over 3.5 goals.
Fortuna Düsseldorf were on the end of a hammering at the hands of leaders Bayern Munich last weekend, a result that ended their six-game unbeaten run that has pulled them within touching distance of safety.
Their performances since the restart have been a mixed bag, but on average their process at both ends of the pitch has been poor (1.0 xGF, 1.8 xGA per game).
Hoffenheim have won back to games heading into this one, beating FC Koln and Mainz, as they continue to create good scoring opportunities. They have generated an average of 2.0 xGF per game, so have the attacking talent to make it back-to-back defeats for their lowly hosts in what should be a tight game.
Given the price on offer, backing Hoffenheim to win is a value play.
RB Leipzig were big winners on Monday, as they beat FC Koln 4-2 thanks to another scintillating attacking display – racking up 3.0 xGF on the road yet again.
Issues since the restart have come at home though, drawing both games at the Red Bull Arena against Freiburg and Hertha Berlin. But, this is a good game to get their home mojo back.
Paderborn put up a decent fight in the first half of their match against Dortmund, but capitulated in the second, losing 6-1 and allowing 3.9 xGA. It was yet another poor defensive performance from the basement side.
They are now eight points behind Fortuna who occupy the relegation play-off place, so it looks likely that they will be relegated this season.
Most of their games against the top teams this season have featured plenty of goals; 3-2 and 4-1 against Leverkusen, 3-2 and 3-2 against Bayern Munich, 3-3 and 6-1 against Dortmund and a 3-2 defeat in the reverse game against RB Leipzig.
Dortmund bounced back emphatically from their Der Klassiker disappointment by romping to a 6-1 success at bottom side Paderborn, though this game will be a great deal tougher.
Prior to that Paderborn game, Dortmund had struggled in attack according to expected goals, being more clinical than would have been expected based on quality of chances created. This is unsustainable over a long period of time.
They had averaged just 1.1 xGF per game in the eight Bundesliga games prior to last weekend’s thumping, so don’t expect them to put up six again unless they improve their process.
Hertha Berlin are one of the form teams in the Bundesliga since the restart, with Bruno Labbadia’s four games in charge seeing 10 points, 11 goals and 2 conceded – both at RB Leipzig.
Their process since Labbadia’s arrival has been excellent (2.0 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game), and they have fantastic counter attacking capabilities that could hurt Dortmund’s high-line.
Dortmund should edge to a win, but don’t expect fireworks.
* Prices correct at publishing but are subject to change except on our snazzy new bet widget which is bang up to date.
Frankfurt vs Mainz: Frankfurt to win and both teams to score
Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich: Bayern Munich to win and over 3.5 goals
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hoffenheim: Hoffenheim to win
RB Leipzig v Paderborn: RB Leipzig to win and over 3.5 goals
Dortmund v Hertha Berlin: Dortmund to win and Under 3.5 goals
- All the latest football betting previews from Germany are on Paddy Power News
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