I find it very hard to be supportive of Schalke in this game for a few reasons. First of all, home advantage being gone is a massive thing for me and I think the market is still not accounting for that correctly. Schalke are a bit short, so there is a bit of value getting with Augsburg.
Schalke were very bad against Dortmund last weekend. They were switching from 4-4-2 to 3-4-3 whilst in possession, but it wasn’t working for them and Dortmund were on hand to punish them.
But I’m not saying Augsburg are going to do the same here. They are in pretty bad form themselves. Based on the last 10 games played both of these sides would be lying in the relegation zone. So, form-wise these are two of the worst teams in the Bundesliga. Augsburg, themselves, have lost five of their last six and have the second-worst away record in the league.
There is value going with Augsburg +1 in the handicap market.
The Bundesliga is back again this weekend. Our football trader and top tipster, Jason Murphy, has got some selections for you: pic.twitter.com/NM6a41UEgB
— Paddy Power (@paddypower) May 22, 2020
That 1-1 draw between Leipzig and Freiburg last week was a classic reason why you have to look beyond a result. Most people at a glance would see a poor result for Leipzig but if you watched the match back, you would have seen that Leipzig absolutely dominated the game.
They had over 20 shots, they won the xG (expected goals) battle by a lot. Even the xG numbers didn’t reflect how dominant they were. We all saw Ademola Lookman miss a sitter but 10 minutes later Patrik Schick had a huge chance but he missed the ball completely from six yards out – that doesn’t show up on xG but the chance was at least worth half a goal.
Leipzig’s opponents on Sunday, Mainz, did very well to comeback from two down last weekend to salvage a 2-2 draw. But I can’t see Mainz bringing anything else to the table in terms of stopping Leipzig here. Leipzig defensively have the second-best record in the league in terms of goals conceded.
So, for me Leipzig to win to nil is the bet. They were very good last weekend and I fancy them to score a few on Sunday.
FC Koln were the team who threw away a two-goal lead against Mainz and ended up drawing 2-2.
But in terms of this match, Fortuna Dusseldorf are in a bit of trouble. They lie third from bottom, four points off Mainz. They had been struggling to score until Uwe Rosler was appointed in February, they have been scoring again. They actually scored in their first eight games under the new boss.
Last week that run ended as they failed to score against Paderborn, but they did manage to hit the woodwork twice and were unlucky. Home advantage is not as effective behind closed doors and FC Koln are overpriced here on the back of that. So, I’m going to go with Fortuna Dusseldorf +1 on the handicap.
- Schalke v Augsburg (Sunday 12.30): Augsburg +1 – 4/6
- Mainz v RB Leipzig (Sunday 14.30): Leipzig to win to nil – 9/5
- FC Koln v Fortuna Dusseldorf (Sunday 17.30): Fortuna Dusseldorf +1 – Evens
The treble clocks in at 9/1.
- All prices correct at time of publishing.