Saturday’s return of the Bundesliga can pretty much be chalked down as a success. Sure, some players were a bit rusty but that’s to be expected, we had plenty of goals in the Revierderby between Dortmund and Schalke.
Wolfsburg are back in the European places having beaten Augsburg while RB Leipzig let down everyone’s acca thanks to not being able to beat Freiburg. Nice on Leipzig.
Now though we want to turn our attention to the Monday night match where Werder Bremen will try to halt Bayer Leverkusen’s 10 game unbeaten run. The home side find themselves seven points away from safety in the relegation zone and really, if they don’t get something positive here, they’re all but doomed. Let’s have a look at the three best bets for this fascinating Bundesliga clash.
The away side love an early away goal. In four out of five previous away Bundesliga matches they’ve scored in the first half. If we look further back they’ve achieved this in seven out of 10 away league matches.
And, if we look at their combined home and away total they’ve scored at least one first half goal in all five league matches. Werder’s record of keeping it scoreless until the second half must be mentioned though, so why are we going with Bayern here?
Well, those stats are so impressive and these matches are pretty much being played at ‘neutral’ venues seeing as they’re behind closed doors. We’re giving the away side the nod to hit the onion bag in the opening 45 minutes.
Verdict: Over 0.5 First half goals for Bayer @ 8/13
Werder have gone five home league matches without a single goal. The Bundesliga’s overall average for home teams is 1.73 goals per game. Werder’s is a lowly 0.73 goals per game.
They’ve been conceding 2.36 goals per game so far this season. Leverkusen’s away goals record is good at 1.67, however they’ve conceded 1.42 per league game. The odds on Both Teams to Score: Yes is currently at 4/7.
While Bayer’s away record of clean sheets is just 25 per cent, Werder have failed to score in 55 per cetn of their home matches and have kept no clean sheets so far this season in the league.
We’re very much going against the market on this one, but there seems to be value in opposing it. That terrible home goal average for Bremen as well as Bayer’s record of keeping Werder scoreless in wo of their four previous visits, means we have to give a big NO for both teams to Score.
Verdict: Both teams to score No @ 5/4.
Unusually, Bayern Leverkusen score the majority of their goals in the first half of matches; 60% of their goals come in the first 45 minutes. Werder’s defensive record though in the second half of matches is ludicrously bad. In their last five home Bundesliga matches they’ve conceded an eye-watering nine goals. Against a team with as good a goal scoring record as Leverkusen it’s hard not to see goals coming in both halves here.
Verdict: A goal scored in both halves @ 8/15
*All of these picks in Paddy’s Same Game Multi pays 6/1 at time of posting.
RECOMMENDED READING:
- 11 of the best Germans to play in the Premier League
- How to bluff it as a German footy expert
- Which Bundesliga team you should support – based on your Premier League allegiances
- Cut me, and I bleed Schalke: Let’s all jump on the Bundesliga bandwagon