Prior to the break in play both of these teams were in pretty decent form, Koln had won three games in five and had scored 12 goals over those matches. Mainz had been decent too, winning two, drawing two and losing one. However, they’ve scored just six over those five matches, failing to net at all in two of those matches.
Compare their home and away form and the picture is quite different though. Koln have won four of their last five home matches, scoring 12 and conceding five, four of which were against Bayern Munich though. In three of those matches they kept their opponents scoreless.
Mainz, on the other hand, have won two and lost three of their last five Bundesliga matches on the road. Their scoring record is good though. They’ve scored 10, but they’ve also conceded 10. The home side were averaging 1.67 goals and conceding 1.33 per match until the break, while Mainz were averaging 1.58 and conceding 2.67.
What have they got to play for though? Well, Koln are still in with a shout of making it into Europe next season, they’ve just four points off the final European spot, while for Mainz they hover just above the relegation playoff place – four points ahead of Dusseldorf, so both will be eager to climb up the table here with the win.
Look, Bayern are a juggernaut and it’ll be the shock of the season if Union win here. They’re currently priced at 1/7 for victory and it’s pretty hard to argue against that price.
Union have a very good scoring record at home though, averaging 1.50 goals per game and they should get on the scoresheet. Bayern are averaging a whopping 2.92 goals per game and, of course, you’d have to look at their main goal threats here.
Poland’s captain Robert Lewandowski, with 25 goals this season, is priced at 4/11 to Score Anytime here and 17/10 to Score First. Former Arsenal man Serge Gnabry has 11 goals this season though, and is 16/5 to Score First and 10/11 to Score Anytime.
Lewandowski has scored first in three of Bayern’s previous five away Bundesliga matches and in the First Goalscorer Wincast he’s priced at 1.95/1. It’s a great record, but in the previous five away matches to those he didn’t open the scoring in any of them.
Back to Gnabry then, he’s scored four in his last five away games and seven of 10 on the road in the league. He’s on a great run and we’re giving him the nod here to score again.
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* All odds correct at time of posting and may be subject to change.