Serie A, Sunday, 5pm, FreeSports
Roma have won just one of their last seven Serie A matches, dropping to fifth place, six points behind Atalanta in the final Champions League qualification spot. Although results haven’t gone their way recently, Roma continue to post exceptional underlying numbers, especially when playing at home, creating chances equating to 2.52 expected goals (xGF) per game on average, while allowing 1.28 against (xGA) per game.
Three consecutive wins have seen Lecce leap up to 15th place Serie A, but they are still forecasted to end the season in the drop zone according to the Infogol model. That is mainly down to their porous defence, which faces a massive task against the second-best attacking side in the league. Lecce are very fortunate not to have conceded more than 45 goals this season, allowing an average of 2.40 xGA per game.
The Infogol model believes Roma are excellent value to win this game at the short price of 1.34, but, given Lecce’s tendency to concede plenty of chances, it is worth chancing that Roma will win by 2 or more goals.
Sunday, Ligue 1, 4pm, BT Sport ESPN
Rennes extended their winless streak to three games last weekend in a 1-0 defeat at Reims, generating a measly 0.14 xGF and failing to score for the third consecutive match. Rennes remain a very impressive defensive unit, limiting opponents to under 1 xG in 10 of their last 12 league matches.
They face a Nîmes side who are fighting for survival, sitting 17th in Ligue 1. However, they are in sparkling form at the moment, winning their last four league matches and holding those opponents to an average of just 0.60 xG per game.
Both sides struggled to create anything of note in the reverse fixture five weeks ago, as Rennes edged out Nîmes in a match that had a cumulative total of 0.96 xG.
We calculate a 62% chance of fewer than three goals in this match-up, so 8/11 represents good value.
Bundesliga, Sunday, 5pm, BT Sport 1
Wolfsburg sit ninth in the Bundesliga, but are unfortunate not to be higher according to Infogol’s xG table, sporting a positive expected goal difference (xGD) of +8.8. Despite collecting just 14 points from 11 games at home, they boast a solid underlying process in the Volkswagen Arena, averaging 1.49 xGF and 1.05 xGA.
Mainz pulled themselves slightly further above the relegation battle last weekend, drawing 0-0 at home to Schalke (xG: MAI 1.78 – 1.09 S04), leaving them five points off the drop zone. Although Mainz can cause teams problems on the road (average 1.42 xGF per game), their defensive numbers make for grim reading, conceding chances equating to 2.23 xGA per game away from home.
Wolfsburg are solid favourites for this match but there is still good value in taking them to win this game.
La Liga, Sunday, 5.30pm
A massive game in the fight for Champions League qualification. Surprise package Getafe enter this game in an incredibly impressive third place in La Liga, despite losing narrowly to Barcelona last weekend (2-1, xG: BAR 2.07 – 1.30 GET). Jose Bordalas has his side extremely well organised, especially at the back. They have conceded just two goals in their last five league games (both at Barcelona) and allow an average of 1.20 xGA per game this season.
Sevilla find themselves in fifth place after a three-game winless run in La Liga. They were slightly unfortunate to have drawn 2-2 with Espanyol last weekend, having held the resurgent Catalans to just 0.69 xG. Defensive solidity has been a staple of Sevilla’s season. They rank as the third-best side in the league based on chances conceded, allowing an average of 1.10 xGA per game.
A tight game is expected here between two excellent defensive sides, making the 9/20 available for under 2.5 goals a solid bet.
*All odds correct at time of publication