Back in August when Aston Villa, Sheffield United and Norwich arrived back in the big time, there was a real sense around Villa Park that the club was back where it belonged. This sentiment was well backed by the owners with a staggering £143m being spent on new arrivals this season.
It hasn’t been all gravy for the Villans this season they sit one point above the drop and suffered key injuries at both ends of the pitch in the form of shot stopper Tom Heaton and (supposed) star striker Wesley. We all think of Norwich as the Premier League’s Swiss Cheese but Aston Villa have conceded the same amount of goals. For a team who spent in excess of £50m on defensive reinforcements that’s a shocking return on investment. Villa need to buck up, and fast.
If you like percentages, this part’s for you: 72% of Villa’s matches have seen 3 or more goals scored, Villa have scored in 92% of their home games. Spurs have an identical concession rate away from home and scored in 75% percent of their away matches.
Tottenham haven’t been so Hot-Spur away from home the past 12 months with 70% of their points earned at home this season but boost a formidable record at Villa Park. They have not lost on their last nine visits and have won their previous five meetings here at an aggregate score of 14-1.
As a result you might presume that I would fancy Spurs, who are fresh from a typically Jose Mourinho win over City and a subsequent follow-up in the form of a hard-fought win over Southampton in the FA Cup. But I can’t trust a side at odds-on away to a side who are genuinely fighting for their lives in the league. A team who have won only two games away from home all season by the odd goal and a side who are preparing for a mammoth Champions League tie against one of the Bundesliga frontrunners next week. We all know what happened the last time a Bundesliga side visited the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Burnley, West Ham and Palace have earned more points away from home than Spurs in 2019-20, for me that’s the deal breaker. All things considered, let’s take a look at a few punts.
- For reasons outlined above the quote of BTTS and Over 2.5 goals at 10/11 looks a cracker.
- Jack Grealish has been one of the league’s star performers and a lack of a genuine striker in this side means the young Brummie is heavily relied-upon to get this side going. The Power price of Grealish 2+ Shots on target at 11/2 looks tasty, given he is full of confidence and will have a pop if the chance arises. I also wouldn’t put anyone off the anytime goalscorer market on the same player at 10/3.
- Finally, given it’s the end of the week I like to have a punt at a bigger price. If the game ignites as expected this could prove to be a real super Sunday: Aston Villa To Win & BTTS, Over 8.5 corners & Each team 20+ booking pts at 22/1, which can be found in our “#WhatOddsPaddy – Featured” section.