Saturday, 12.30, BT Sport 1
The definition of a mid-table clash awaits on Saturday afternoon, Southampton and Burnley sit level on 31 points just a few a wins away from crossing the magic 40 point barrier.
Southampton are bottom of the home form table with just 11 points this season at St Mary’s but they can turn this run around and I expect to see a home win on Saturday. Since the start of the new year, the Saints’ league form has been impressive.
They have won three from five and missed some golden chances to take the lead in their last outing versus Liverpool.
Meanwhile, Burnley are one of the lowest-scoring teams away from home this season with a just the 12 goals,
How can I not recommend Southampton to Win to Nil at 15/8?
The main man on the south coast is undoubtedly Danny Ings. The former Liverpool forward is making a late bid for the England squad he has been in terrific form this season scoring 14 goals. It’s his best tally since 2014/15 when he made his name with Burnley scoring 11 goals before his big-money move to Liverpool.
There will be no love shown by Danny this weekend for his old club though. His First Goalscorer price is 3/1 but I would prefer our on-site Power Price for Danny Ings to Score 2 or More at 7/1 enhanced from 5/1.
Two players stand out for me in the Yellow card markets.
There are many reasons for tipping a yellow, players playing out of position, pacey wingers against inexperienced full-backs or, at the end of the day, just your classic slow centre midfield who loves a tactical foul when he is out of position.
Ashley Westwood is your poster boy for this with eight yellows this season. He isn’t helped much by Sean Dyche, as Burnley are one of the few clubs who stick to a strict 4-4-2, meaning they often get caught in three-v-two or two-v-one in the middle of the field.
My other selection is Yan Valery at right-back for Southampton, who is up against Burnley’s pacey winger Dwight McNeil. Inexperience against pace should lead to fouls from Valery.