Espanyol enter this relegation six-pointer on the back of a disappointing 3-1 defeat at Granada last weekend, creating more than enough chances to gain at least a point (xG: GRA 1.21 – 3.14 ESP). They have looked much-improved in attack recently and face the second-worst defence in La Liga based on chances conceded. Mallorca allow 2.02 expected goals against (xGA) per game, which rises to 2.48 xGA when playing on the road.
Raúl de Tomás leads the line for the Catalan side, and is already Espanyol’s top goalscorer in La Liga despite only joining in January, scoring three goals in three games.
The Spaniard has quickly taken responsibility for penalties and while Infogol thinks there is good value in backing over 2.5 goals in this game, given Espanyol’s improvement in attack and the form Raúl de Tomás is in, he looks the value play to hit the net again in this early-morning encounter.
Selection: Raúl de Tomás to score anytime @ 17/10.
Bayern Munich’s six-game winning streak has seen them climb to the summit of the Bundesliga, leaping above opponents RB Leipzig. Bayern have been imperious during that run, averaging 3.46 xGF and 0.94 xGA per game on average, but face their toughest test for a while here.
RB Leipzig’s title credentials have taken a hit after a disappointing 2-0 loss in Frankfurt before a 2-2 draw with Borussia Mönchengladbach, but both of those performances were fairly solid from a defensive standpoint. Julian Nagelsmann’s men have been solid at the back all season, conceding chances equating to 1.28 xGA per game on average.
The two sides couldn’t be split in September’s reverse fixture (1-1), and Infogol’s model anticipates a tighter game than the markets suggest, so under 3.5 goals looks the play.
Selection: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1/1.
Following three consecutive 1-1 draws in Serie A, Inter Milan bounced back to form with a convincing 2-0 win away to Udinese last weekend. Antonio Conte’s side have posted excellent underlying numbers this season, averaging 1.85 xGF and 1.02 xGA per game, presenting a serious challenge to reigning champions Juventus.
City rivals AC Milan enter the derby in the midst of a five-game unbeaten run in Serie A, albeit against a soft schedule. The Rossoneri were demolished the last time they faced a side of real quality, losing 5-0 to Atalanta just before the winter break, and were comfortably defeated (2-0) in the reverse fixture (xG ACM 1.03 – 2.24 INT).
Infogol’s model believes Inter will claim the Milan derby bragging rights.
Selection: Back Inter to win @ 5/6.
PSG now sit 12 points clear at the top of the table after a narrow, but fully deserved, 2-1 victory over Nantes in midweek. Thomas Tuchel’s side are recording ridiculous metrics this season, averaging 3.12 xGF per game.
The Parisiens are one of only three teams in Ligue 1 who limit opponents to less than 1 xG per game (0.76). Rudi Garcia’s Lyon are also one of those teams, allowing chances equating to 0.96 xGA per game on average. Surprisingly, they have found it difficult to carve out scoring opportunities this season, averaging just 1.24 xGF per game.
Lyon struggled to create anything of note in the reverse fixture in September, but limited a usually rampant PSG side to 1.71 xG in a 1-0 loss, displaying their ability to keep things relatively tight against the runaway league leaders.
With Infogol calculating a 53 per chance of less than four goals, there’s still some juice in the price for under 3.5 goals at time of publishing.
Selection: Under 3.5 Goals @ 11/10.
*Prices correct at time of publication