EFL Cup betting tips: 3 best bets for the City-United semi-final decider

A smart trio of picks on a vital Manchester derby.

TOPSHOT - Manchester United's Norwegian manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (L) and Manchester City's Spanish manager Pep Guardiola react during the English League Cup semi-final first leg football match between Manchester United and Manchester City at Old Trafford in Manchester, north west England on January 7, 2020. - Manchester City won the match 3-1. (Photo by Paul ELLIS / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, games or single club/league/player publications. / (Photo by PAUL ELLIS/AFP via Getty Images)

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Manchester United suffered a humiliating 1-3 defeat at home to their oldest of rivals Manchester City in the first leg of the League Cup semi final three weeks ago. United looked clueless, were outgunned and outclassed and only for a Marcus Rashford consolation goal the tie would probably be dead.

However, United put six past Tranmere at the weekend and even though they lost away to Liverpool they put in a spirited performance. Of course that Burnley defeat happened between those matches.

City on the other hand have won three of their four matches since then and are back scoring goals for fun, no doubt they’ll be eager to inflict more pain on United here but it must be said that United have a good record at the Etihad Stadium. Over their last five meetings, United have won three, with one ending all square and the other being a win for City. Let’s have a look at the three best bets.

Pep Guardiola

Both Teams to Score – 4/5

Both Teams to Score would have landed in 3/3 previous meetings at the Etihad and in 4/5 previous meetings played at both grounds. Looking at Man City’s defence in particular here, they’ve conceded at least one goal in 3/4 previous home matches and in the league at home this season they’re averaging 1.0 goals conceded per match.

United’s away scoring record is of concern though, they failed to score in 3/5 previous away matches in all competitions. However, against City over their last 10 clashes there United have scored at least one goal in 7/10. With the onus on United here and them needing at least two goals to draw level on aggregate Both Teams to Score at 17/20 is too good to say no to.

Man United Over 0.5 First Half Goals – 15/8

Yes, this is going a little against the grain and while we do think Manchester City will win the tie, United, especially over recent head to head matches, are certainly more than capable of getting a goal here. As said above their scoring record is concerning having not scored in 3/5 previous away matches. However, if we dig a bit deeper into the stats and if we look at the recent away matches where they were scoring, they’ve scored eight First Half goals in four matches.

Add to this that City have conceded two first half goals in their last three matches and you can see why we’re giving this the nod. United have to attack here and draw first blood and with odds as high as 2/1 we have to have a nibble on it.

Sergio Aguero

Sergio Aguero to Score Anytime – 8/13

Sergio Aguero’s been in incredible form of late, he has seven goals in his last five matches. His record against United is nothing short of mighty too, over 14 matches against the Red Devils he’s got nine goals to his name.

We reckon he’ll be adding more to that tally on Wednesday night.

Picks Summary

A £/€1 treble on these selections returns £/€4.67 including stake on pp.com. Odds correct at time of posting, subject to change.

City 1/4, Draw 9/2, United 15/2