Euro football betting tips: 5/1 looks fun for this Sunday xG treble

The Infogol statisticians have crunched the numbers and come up with a tasty trio.

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Mallorca vs Valencia

Sunday, 11:00

Mallorca sit in the relegation zone heading into this game after a 1-0 defeat away at Granada last time out, a game in which they were unfortunate not to have got a point (xG: GRA 1.26 – 1.12 MAL). They rank as the second worst defensive team in the league at the half way stage (2.08 xGA per game), but their attacking process is that of a mid-table team (1.35 xGF per game), which is why we usually see plenty of chances and goals when they play.

Valencia were fortunate to edge out Eibar in their last game (xG: VAL 1.09 – 1.34 EIB), but that victory moved them up to 6th in the table, though that is two places higher than they should be according to expected goals. They actually possess a negative xGD/game (-0.19), which means they have a worst expected goals process (1.57 xGF, 1.76 xGA per game) than struggling Celta Vigo (-0.11 xGD/game).

So here we have two sides who both create and concede good chances in matches. The Infogol model calculates a 61% (1.64) chance of both teams scoring here, meaning the 1.83 (54%) on the Exchange represents value.

Selection: BTTS @ 8/11

Jose-Gaya-Valencia-&-Spain

Lecce vs Inter Milan

Sunday, 14:00

Lecce come into this game on the back of four straight defeats in Serie A following a 2-0 loss away at Parma, and that was a fair result according to expected goals, as have their other defeats in this run. They are by far and away the worst defensive team in Serie A, allowing a whopping 2.48 xGA per game, some 0.63 more than next worst Cagliari, but they do have a capability to create chances also (1.40 xGF per game).

Inter Milan lost top spot last weekend, as their draw with Atalanta and Juventus’ win at Roma meant they switched places, though Antonio Conte’s side were extremely fortunate to avoid defeat against Atalanta (xG: INT 0.65 – 2.49 ATA). That was their third draw in five league games, and the sort of result they can’t afford as they aim to end Juventus’ domestic dominance.

Inter have kept only three clean sheets in their last 14 league games, so Lecce will fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet here, and Infogol sees both teams netting in this one (58% -1.72), which can be backed at 1.90 (52%) as a value bet.

Selection: BTTS @ 4/5

Hertha Berlin vs Bayern Munich

Sunday, 14:30

German football returns after a winter break, and on Sunday we have Hertha Berlin – managed by Jurgen Klinsmann if he has his coaching badges sorted – taking on champions Bayern Munich.

Hertha went into the break unbeaten in four matches, with their last three games seeing a combined two goals, so while on paper they aren’t an entertaining team to watch, chances usually flow in their matches. They average 1.30 xGF per game, which given the high-scoring and entertaining nature of the Bundesliga rates as the fourth lowest average, and defensively they are allowing 1.63 xGA per game, so are defensively vulnerable, which doesn’t bode well here.

Bayern Munich reeled off three straight wins to enter the international break, with goals flowing in that time, as they netted 11 times from chances equating to 11.84 xGF… in three games!

Their average this season is a whopping 2.95 xGF per game, so they have no problems at all in creating chances, only this season they look more vulnerable defensively (1.28 xGA per game).

They will take the game to Hertha here, and look to expose their vulnerabilities, so Infogol thinks there is a great chance of seeing over 3.5 goals (51% – 1.96), meaning the 2.08 (48%) represents good value.

Selection: Over 3.5 Goals @ 19/20

Picks Summary

A £/€1 treble on these three selections returns £/€6.06 including stake on pp.com. Odds correct at time of posting, subject to change.

Find a full range of odds from Germany, Italy and Spain over on paddypower.com