Letting a Champions League-winning coach leave for Steve Bruce is the equivalent of marrying Brad Pitt and running off with Terry Venables, but that’s what Newcastle did last summer when they let Rafa Benitez go off to China and brought in the weathered Steve Bruce.
They had a brief honeymoon period at the start of the season but the numbers suggested they were overachieving. Their current league position of 13th is a false one as they are last in the league on expected goals, expected points and are only averaging three shots on target per game.
To gauge how bad this is, Southampton, who are one position ahead of them in the league, are taking over 4.5 shots on target per game.
Chelsea, a bit like Newcastle, started well but tailed off before the turn of the year. They are starting to win more often than not now, being unbeaten in their last three games away from home.
They were also impressive in the away game against Tottenham, where they soaked up all the pressure and caught Tottenham on the counter with the pace they have up front.
Chelsea are only giving away three shots on target per game and are fourth in the league on expected goals against, so this might be a frustrating day for Joelinton, who will more than likely play up top on his own.
Taking all this into consideration, Chelsea to win to nil looks the bet here for me at 17/10.
With Newcastle’s lack of flair and Chelsea hitting form again in front of goal it all points to a comfortable win for the visitors. If you want a small punt at bigger prices 2-0 to Chelsea on the correct score market looks the most likely scoreline. It’s priced at 13/2 and worth a bet given the trends.