Well this is all a bit strange, isn’t it? The Spanish Super Cup having its semi-finals and final in Saudi Arabia and trying to find it on telly hasn’t exactly been easy but where there’s a will there’s a way and over the matches so far both of the Madrid clubs have shown they’re worthy of their places in the final.
We’ve had a look at the stats and the form of both teams to find the three best bets. Oh, and one more thing, this kicks off at 6pm on Sunday, perfect for dinner time.
Real vs Atletico: Both Teams to Score: Yes – 8/11
Obviously enough this is being played at a neutral venue so there’ll be no home advantage – or will there?
Against Valencia in the first semi-final, the crowd were certainly on Real’s side and in the Barca match the crowd had far more Barca sympathisers than Atletico.
However, by full time the Barca players were being jeered for throwing away a 2-1 lead to lose 2-3, so the King Abdullah Sports City crowd can be swayed.
We mention this because home advantage won’t come into play so we’ll pay more attention to combined home vs away stats.
Over their last five competitive matches (we’re not counting preseason friendlies) between Real and Atletico, Both Teams to Score has occurred in 3/5. Over their 10 most recent meetings, BTTS has landed in 5/10. There have been seven meetings between the pair in knockout competitions since 2014; Champions League, Super Cup and BTTS has landed in 4/7.
While it can be easy to dismiss the ludicrousness of this competition being played in Saudi Arabia and not even being on Spanish television, the players are taking it seriously as was seen in the two semi-finals, mix in the chance of silverware and that it’s a Madrid derby and you can see why we’re backing Both Teams to Score at 8/11 here.
Real vs Atletico: Over 2.5 Goals – 19/20
Over 2.5 goals has only landed in 2/5 previous Real Madrid matches, however, if we look further back we can see that it has occurred in 9/15. For Atletico, it has occurred in 3/5 previous matches but only in 5/15.
Real Madrid have scored at least a goal in 12/15, they’ve scored two or more in 10/15 previous matches, for Atletico their record is having scored at least one in 11/15. They’ve scored two or more in 7/15.
In previous competitive meetings between the pair, Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 5/10. When we look at the seven knockout matches mentioned above Over 2.5 has landed in 4/7. Both teams are scoring plenty of goals of late and that’s why we’re going with Over 2.5 goals here at 19/20.
Real vs Atletico: A Goal Scored in Both Halves – 8/11
In 4/7 previous meetings between the pair in those knockout matches this bet would have landed. It would have landed in 4/10 previous competitive meetings between these old rivals.
The stats aren’t exactly on our side here but we reckon we’ll see at least one goal in the first half with the rest coming in the second and for this bet we just need one goal scored per half for it to win.