The games are coming thick and fast now, it’s the best time of the year to be a Premier League fan. Tired players means loads of goals and late tackles and missed sitters, goalkeeper howlers and the odd red card as well. We’re all still feeling a bit tender from overdoing it at Christmas, but we’re knuckled down and looked at the Saturday 3pm matches to find some value in the betting markets. Let’s have a look at what we found.
Newcastle have lost only once at home in the Premier League this season. Yes, that’s true, hard to believe, but y’know, ‘tis the season and all that. Anyway, since losing 0-1 to Arsenal back in August the Magpies have gone eight games undefeated, beating Crystal Palace, Southampton, Bournemouth and Man United (though United did get their revenge in a 4-1 thumping at Old Tarfford last night) and drawing with Watford, Brighton, Wolves and Man City.
Everton, meanwhile, are muck on their travels, collecting just five points (one win and two draws) from a possible 27.
Can Big Carlo get his first away win of his Everton career? Still feels a bit mad to see Carlo Ancelotti at Everton, this man’s won it all in football, as a player and a manager and now he’s managing Theo Walcott and Tom Davies. Strange times we live in.
Anyway, Newcastle, while enjoying a decent record at home are only scoring 1.11 goals on average at home in the league and are conceding 0.78. Everton are scoring 1.0 goals and conceding 2.0 goals on average on their travels. Both Teams to Score is available at 3/4, but that Newcastle home record is something hard to argue with so our pick is Newcastle Double Chance at 8/13.
Even with yesterday’s ‘shock’ two-nil win away to Chelsea, there’s no escaping Southampton’s home record makes for some pretty dire reading. They’re bottom of the home form table with just seven points (two wins and one draw) chalked up from a possible 27. They’ve scored only nine goals across those matches, averaging 1.0 goals per home PL game and conceding 2.67. Like I said, dire reading.
Palace’s away form is a little better in comparison, winning three, drawing two and losing four of their away PL matches this season. They’ve only scored eight goals though and have conceded 12, so that’s 0.89 goals per game and 1.33 conceded.
There have been some decent matches between the two at St Mary’s over the last few seasons, but recent form suggests there’s very little between the two here, especially with their recent goal-scoring stats, so the value is in the draw here at 5/2.
Watford beat Man United 2-0 in their last home match. That was hilarious, wasn’t it? Prior to that, they’d not won at Vicarage Road since beating Fulham last April – a run of 12 matches without a win. A 1-1 draw with Sheffield United on Thursday may suggest that they are slowly turning a corner under Nigel Pearson.
Aston Villa are just as bad on their travels though, winning just one and drawing one of their nine away PL matches this season, averaging 1.33 goals scored and conceding 2.11.
The home side are scoring just 0.67 per match and conceding 1.44. With Villa’s away record being so bad you’d normally go with the home side here, but their record is even worse, both sides have very leaky defences so let’s exploit that further and go with Both Teams to Score at 4/7.