Nuno Espirito Santo’s Wolves will welcome Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City to Molineux on Friday night for their final home Premier League match of the season. Wolves pulled off a famous victory in the reverse fixture earlier in the season so City will be prowling for revenge here.
Will they have more bite this time though? They were excellent in their recent 3-1 win over Leicester City at home on Sunday. Wolves though are fierce on their own patch, having lost just twice in their last 15 home Premier league matches. Can anyone take the three points on offer and, more importantly, where can we find some value in the betting markets?
14 out of Wolves’ 18 Premier League matches have seen Both Teams to Score land. In their home matches, 7/9 Premier League matches have seen both teams hitting the back of the net. While for Manchester City, Both Teams to Score has landed in 6/9 away matches. Getting odds of 4/5 is very good value here.
Both teams are clearly in good goal scoring form but they’re both conceding plenty too; Wolves are averaging 1.33 goals conceded per home PL match, while City, on their travels, are conceding 1.22 goals on average. Both Teams to Score at 4/5 feels like a steal.
If Wolves win or draw here this bet wins, if they lose by just one goal this bet will also win. As we’ve already said above, Wolves have lost only twice in their last 15 home PL matches, only once by more than one goal. If we’d made this bet on Wolves’ last 15 matches, we’d have won 14 times. If we’d applied this handicap to City’s five more recent away PL matches, they’ve have lost three times and if we’d made this bet over their 15 most previous away PL matches, they’d have lost 11 times.
Add to this that Molineux hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for City over the years. This will be the 53rd meeting between the sides in a league match, the home side have won 28, City have won just 12, while 12 have ended all square. With all of those stats to mind, getting Wolves +2 at 4/6 is pretty decent value.
Wolves love a second half goal. Just over 69% of their Premier League goals have been scored in the second period of play. Getting odds of 2.5 for this is simply outstanding. What’s against us here is that so far this season City have tended to concede less goals in the second half than in the first.
Having said that though, Wolves have scored a second half goal in every one of their home Premier League matches this season, the odds should be far lower on this and it screams value. Over 0.5 second half goals for Wolves is 6/4.
These picks into a treble will give you odds of roughly 2.68/1. Odds correct at time of posting, subject to change.