Burnley vs Newcastle: Burnley to win – 10/11
It has been a tough few games for Burnley, as they come into this on the back of three straight defeats, conceding 11 times in those games.
Sean Dyche’s side were unfortunate to lose to Crystal Palace in gameweek 14 (xG: BUR 2.26 – 0.92 CRY), before heavy defeats to Manchester City (4-1) and Tottenham (5-0) – though the scorelines in both were harsh according to expected goals.
Burnley sit ninth in Infogol’s xG table, and have a very solid process after 16 games, averaging 1.50 xGF and 1.37 xGA per game this season, and only Manchester City, Chelsea and Everton have created more non-penalty big chances than Burnley this season – so they are a potent attacking threat.
Newcastle are one of the form teams in the Premier League according to the actual results, winning four of their last six and losing just one.
They have picked up seven points in their last four games, but the aggregate xG in that time has been 3.20 – 8.47, while they have won 6-5 on actual scorelines, showing just how fortunate they have been.
Steve Bruce’s side sit third bottom of our xG table, and have the worst attacking process in the league (0.99 xGF per game), and if they continue performing to the same levels, their results will start to match their poor performances.
We think Newcastle’s bubble bursts here and have found a great deal of value in backing a home win.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth: Both Teams To Score – 3/4
It has been a tough few weeks in the Premier League for Chelsea, as they have lost three of their last four games following a 3-1 defeat to Everton last weekend, a fair result according to expected goals (xG: EVE 1.87 – 0.98 CHE).
They may have had one eye on a crunch Champions League tie with Lille in midweek, a game they won comfortably (xG: CHE 2.58 – 0.33 LIL), but those three defeats have given the chasing pack hope, with the gap from Chelsea to Manchester NOW just five points.
They rate as the second-best home team in the league according to xG, averaging a huge 2.51 xGF per game while allowing just 0.95 xGA per game, so it really is hard to make a case for Bournemouth to come away from this with something.
Chelsea will get on the scoresheet here, but from what we have seen in recent weeks (1.38 xGA per game in last 4), we can expect the Cherries to get some chances here.
What is happening at Bournemouth? Is Eddie Howe distracted by links to other jobs?
Maybe, but why any team would hire a coach whose team has won just one of their last 10 games, and head into gameweek 17 on a five-game losing streak?
In their last four matches, the Cherries have generated an average of just 0.68 xGF per game, far from what we would expect, but for me, it is only a matter of time before Eddie Howe just reverts to an all-out attack style that we have seen over the last five years.
While Bournemouth haven’t been potent in attack of late, they do face a leaky Chelsea defence, and I can see them getting on the scoresheet in another defeat. There is value in backing both teams to score here according to the Infogol model.
Leicester vs Norwich: Leicester win to nil – 11/10
Can anyone slow Leicester down? Apparently not, as they come into this game on an eight-game winning streak following a demolition job away at Aston Villa last weekend (xG: AST 1.37 – 4.53 LEI).
They started the season well, but according to xG they were fortunate in quite a few of those, but Brendan Rodgers has flipped a switch with his team, and now they are performing extremely well and getting the results that they deserve.
Their attacking process has taken off in recent weeks, as in their last four matches, the Foxes have averaged a huge 3.43 xGF per game. In that same time they have averaged only 0.94 xGA per game, so are performing like one of the best teams in the Premier League.
Leicester rank as the best team in the league in terms of non-penalty big chances conceded this season (12). They are extremely tough to break down, shown by the fact that they have kept five clean sheets in their last seven.
Norwich are in contrasting form to Leicester, having won just one of their last 11 league games, though were unfortunate to lose to Sheffield United last weekend in what was an even game (xG: NOR 0.70 – 0.83 SHU).
They sit second bottom of our xG table and possess the worst process in the league according to expected goals (1.13 xGF, 2.09 xGA per game), creating very little and conceding plenty of chances every single match.
Leicester are short favourites to win this game, but given how strong The Foes have been defensively and how poor Norwich have been in attack, I think the play here is to get on side with Leicester to win to nil.
* All odds correct at time of posting.