If you’re brave enough to be strolling around Millwall on a Friday night then I want to be friends with you, but if not, then at least you can sit back in the relevant comfort of the sofa.
This is a real clash of styles and a game that should epitomise the winter months in the Championship – manic. The Den would be intimidating enough with tourists floating around the pitch on lilos, let alone in the freezing cold of December. Forest won’t have it all their own way, but they will have a sneaking advantage.
Here’s a nice little earner for you to pick up on with a same-game multi.
You’d take that price normally in this situation and label it a coupon buster – especially if you’re not into tempting yourself an early tick mark on a Friday night game. But this one’s a bit different.
Millwall, slightly more progressive these days but not totally reformed to modern ways, catch teams who play out from the back and overcomplicate things in midfield before being picked off at the other end because their defensive resolve can’t stand up to blood and thunder.
Forest are nothing of the sort. Boasting a mightily impressive 14 goals conceded through 18 Championship fixtures – a total only bettered by Leeds United at this point (10 conceded through 19 – all hail Marcelo Bielsa) – they’ve deal with teams who go more direct, who get in your face and who try to nick possession when patience isn’t wearing thing enough in the middle third.
Sabri Lamouchi doesn’t believe in inefficiency, though. If anything, he prides himself on the ability to break at pace and this is what’s making this particular Forest unit the most exciting in years. They’ll handle a Friday night in south London, cold or not.
The very best thing about this game, though, is that we haven’t seen the best of either side to date. At the moment, Forest’s xG is roughly 1.68 per game, while they’re scoring just 1.4 – still above the league average of 1.3 over the last few games.
But they have been fortunate at the other end of the pitch as they’re giving up just 0.4 goals per game in that same span, while their opponents’ combined xG is 1.04 – significantly higher than the actual turnover.
Millwall’s opponents are scoring pretty much exactly the amount of goals they should be given the areas of the pitch they’re getting into, but Millwall themselves have more in their locker than they’re showing. Expect goals.
It’s expected to be approaching zero degrees Celsius in London on Friday night. I’m not for one minute going to be convinced that anyone’s busting a gut early doors until their bodies get used to the temperature.
Goals are far more likely to come in the second half than the first.
A £/€1 treble on these three selections returns £/€47.30 including stake on pp.com. Odds correct at time of posting, subject to change.