Bologna vs Parma (Sunday, 11:30am)
Bologna’s underlying numbers continue to be strong. They rank as one of the better teams in the league according to expected goals (xG), creating chances equating to an impressive 1.87 per game, while allowing just 1.04 x GF (goals for) per game.
Parma were fortunate to beat Roma 2-0 before the international break based on chances created, having been limited to very-low probability chances (highest 10%). Despite scoring six goals, Parma have been dreadful in attack away from home, generating a measly total of 3.29 x GF in their five matches (0.65 xGF per game).
The Infogol model thinks Bologna have a 61% chance of winning this game, making the 8/11 (58%) on offer good value, so they should be backed here.
Selection: Back Bologna to win @ 8/11
Hoffenheim vs Mainz (Sunday, 5pm)
After a sluggish start to their Bundesliga campaign, Hoffenheim have stepped up their game in recent weeks, recording five consecutive wins to move to sixth place in the table. New personnel look to have settled in and scoring opportunities are starting to be created regularly as a result, averaging 2.27 x GF in their last three games.
Mainz have dropped into the relegation zone following an embarrassing 8-0 defeat at RB Leipzig (xG: RBL 3.50 – 0.86 MAI) before an unfortunate 3-2 loss at home to Union Berlin last time out (xG: MAI 2.19 – 1.64 UNB).
They have struggled to stop their opponents from creating good chances this season, especially away from home, averaging a poor 2.16 x GA on their travels.
Hoffenheim are favourites for this game, but Infogol thinks they should be even shorter. We calculate a 68% chance of a Hoffenheim win, but they can be backed at 8/13 (62%), making them a very solid selection.
Selection: Back Hoffenheim to win @ 8/13
Real Valladolid vs Sevilla (Sunday, 8pm)
Real Valladolid come into this game on the back of an extremely disappointing defeat at Alavés, but they remain unbeaten at home this season, winning their last two matches at the Estadio José Zorrilla in good style. It has been their defence which has let them down at times this season, conceding chances equating to 1.81 xGA per game on average.
Sevilla recorded a 2-1 victory in ‘El Gran Derbi’ against Real Betis last time out despite being comfortably second-best based on chances created (xG: BET 1.90 – 0.94 SEV). Although they found it difficult in that game, Sevilla have been impressive going forward away from home this season, averaging 1.63 x GF per game prior to the Seville derby.
Infogol’s model expects both these sides to get on the scoresheet, giving a 56% chance of that outcome, making the 4/5 available a small amount of value.
Selection: Back Both Teams to Score @ 4/5
Timeform Treble pays 4/1
Bologna vs Parma: Bologna to win @ 8/11
Hoffenheim vs Mainz: Hoffenheim to win @ 8/13
Real Valladolid vs Sevilla: Back Both Teams to Score @ 4/5
