Genoa were denied a point at Juventus in midweek, conceding a late penalty in a 2-1 defeat, although they did deserve to lose based on chances created, allowing 2.79 xGA and creating just 0.36 xGF.
Thiago Motta made an instant impact in his first game in charge of Genoa last Sunday, with all three of his substitutions getting on the scoresheet in a 3-1 comeback win over Brescia at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Udinese enter this game on the back of two horrific performances, losing 7-1 at Atalanta last Sunday (xG: ATA 5.86 – 0.47 UDI) before suffering a 4-0 home defeat against Roma on Wednesday night, seemingly allowing big chances at will.
Both those matches also showcased how poor Udinese have been in attack this season, scoring just five goals in nine games, and averaging a lowly 0.81 xGF per game.
Genoa look much better since the appointment of Thiago Motta and are more than capable of beating a severely out of form Udinese side. Infogol’s model forecasts a 55% chance (4/5) of the home side gaining three points here, making the 5/6 (54%) available a small amount of value.
Fortuna Düsseldorf gifted Bundesliga punching bags Paderborn their first win of the season in a very disappointing 2-0 defeat last weekend, but they were very unfortunate to lose that game according to xG, with Paderborn’s goals coming from very low-probability chances.
Despite the narrow 1-0 winning scoreline, Fortuna were much better than Mainz in their last home game, limiting their opponents to very few scoring opportunities.
Newly-promoted FC Köln suffered a 3-1 defeat away to fellow strugglers Mainz last weekend, leaving them toiling in the Bundesliga relegation zone.
The Billy Goats are finding it difficult to create chances so far this season, averaging 1.27 xGF per game, but they have been unfortunate to concede as many as they have.
As shown in the graphic above, Fortuna Düsseldorf are flagged up as tremendous value by our Infogol model, which gives them a 46% chance (6/5) of winning against a FC Köln side expected to be in the relegation battle, making Fortuna Düsseldorf to win the selection here at 13/8 (38%).
Celta Vigo fell into the relegation places following a 2-1 loss at Real Betis on Wednesday night, despite creating better chances than the home side.
Unsurprisingly, Celta manager Fran Escriba is under huge pressure after a run of three consecutive defeats in La Liga, but they have been unlucky in attack this season, scoring just six goals from 13.07 xGF.
Getafe lifted themselves to ninth place in La Liga after a hard-fought 3-1 win over high-flying Granada on Thursday night, allowing their opponents to create big chances only after taking a two-goal lead.
José Bordalás’ side haven’t been as defensively solid as expected this season, especially away from home, allowing chances equating to 1.64 xGA per game on average.
Celta Vigo will have to approach this game on the front foot as they desperately need the win here, but Getafe have more than enough firepower to cause the home side problems. The Infogol model expects both these sides to get on the scoresheet, calculating a 54% chance (5/6) of that outcome, making the Evens (50%) on offer good value.