Arsenal vs Bournemouth: Arsenal to win and BTTS – 13/10
Arsenal were unfortunate not to get all three points according to expected goals on Monday night, being held to a 1-1 draw by Manchester United despite the Gunners creating the better chances (xG: MUN 1.08 – 2.26 ARS).
They built on that again in the Europa League against a poor Standard Liege team, racking up a whopping 5.06 xGF, even with a majority ‘second-string’ and youth team.
Arsenal’s attacking capabilities have never really been in question, and in the Premier League they have averaged a 1.65 xGF per game, but defensively their issues remain.
Unai Emery’s side have allowed an average 1.85 xGA per game, so are extremely vulnerable, and their most recent home league game against Aston Villa saw something similar (xG: ARS 2.91 – 1.83 AST), and the Gunners face a much better attacking team in this game.
Bournemouth were unfortunate to only draw with West Ham last weekend (xG: BOU 2.54 – 1.55 WHU), again creating a host of chances – something Eddie Howe’s side have no problem with.
The Cherries have averaged 1.59 xGF per game this season, but look even more vulnerable defensively than Arsenal, allowing 2.11 xGA per game – the second most in the league behind only Watford.
Both teams have hit the net in every Premier League game this season, and their last five league games have seen over 3.5 goals, so expect something similar here.
Given both sides attacking abilities and defensive frailties, it is no surprise that Infogol is expecting a high-scoring game, and given Arsenal are rightly favourites, backing the home team to win and both teams to score is the play.
Manchester City vs Wolves: Man City to win and Under 3.5 Goals – 11/10
Manchester City kept up their incredible attacking numbers at Everton last weekend, with their xGF average now a whopping 3.31 per game and Pep Guardiola’s side showing no sign of slowing down.
The only issue for City so far this season has been their defensive process away from home (1.88 xGA per away game), so they will be looking forward to being back at the Etihad. Their defensive process is much, much better at the Etihad (0.51 xGA per home game).
It is actually a staggering difference between home and away, but it does mean that Wolves have a really tough job on their hands to trouble City here.
Wolves were in Turkey on Thursday night in the Europa League and managed a historic late win thanks to Willy Boly’s goal. But, the turnaround is tight, and this is the last game Nuno Espírito Santo will have wanted.
They managed to get their first win of the Premier League season last weekend against bottom side Watford and they actually haven’t been as bad as results would suggest. They will undoubtedly do their best to limit City here.
Nuno’s side look to be trending back to the sort of figures we saw last season, but given the circumstances heading into this game, it’s hard to make a case for anything other than a City win.
Infogol calculates a 55% (1.82) chance of under 3.5 goals, suggesting Wolves can hang in there and limit their hosts. But, City will get the win, so combining the two and backing a City win and Under 3.5 Goals is the selection.
* All odds correct at time of posting.