Atletico have not beaten Real at home in the league in the last four attempts. The last time was in 2015 at the old Vicente Calderon.
Zidane may be under pressure but he got a massive win last Sunday away to Sevilla and followed it up with a comfortable midweek win at home to Osasuna. Zizou rested five of his best XI for that game so Real should be fresh for the derby. Also, look at the starting XI they had against Sevilla, it is still an all-star line-up. This is a very big game in terms of the title race and a win for either side would be a massive boost.
Both sides carry strong attacking threats. Joao Felix scored midweek against Mallorca and has made an excellent start to his Atletico career. The shithousing bastard Diego Costa scored four in a preseason “friendly” against Real Madrid and then proceeded to get sent off.
Morata is suspended and will not face his old club. We know all about Hazard’s attacking threat. His season was stalled by injury but this would be the perfect game to announce his arrival at Real by grabbing a goal. Additionally, it would be the perfect way for Gareth Bale to show why his departure would have been a terrible decision by the club.
But for me Benzema First Goalscorer at 9/2 is the best bet of the lot– he has five goals in five games in the league already, four of those times he has been the first goalscorer. He has really stepped up to the plate since Ronaldo left and has been the arguably Real’s best player since his departure.
These Madrid derbies are traditionally low scoring games, with four of the last five meetings in the league producing under 2.5 goals. It is always hard to call these derbies since Diego Simone took over and closed the gap between these two rivals.
The match odds suggest the market is finding it hard to separate them with Atletico currently slight favourites at 11/8. If you’re looking for a 90-minute bet then given the attacking threat of both sides now, I am going with both teams to score at 8/11.
To add to that, given the derby that it is, check out the booking markets with both teams to have a Red Card at a nice 20/1 shot. VAR and the new rule on tackles from behind has seen some very harsh red cards in La Liga this season. It is a directive only in La Liga that any contact with studs on an opponent’s Achilles will see VAR give a red, even if it is accidental, which it is unlikely to be with Costa and Ramos on the pitch going at it.
Betting Summary:
Benzema to score first @ 9/2
Both teams to score @ 8/11
Both team to have a red card @ 20/1