Football fans know that a player has a better chance of scoring with a shot from the edge of the six-yard box than a shot from 30+ yards, but on the stats sheet after a game, both are viewed equally in the ‘shots’ column. Infogol’s Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical metric which assesses every chance created during a game, assigning a likelihood of each individual chance being scored. For more details shoot over to Infogol’s Expected Goals introduction.
There are plenty of games taking place across Europe this Sunday, so Infogol’s analysts have taken a look at matches from La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga, using expected goals (xG) to assess three games and generate the best free betting tips, arriving at a 6/1 treble.
Eibar are yet to win this season, and let a two-goal lead slip last time out against Atlético Madrid, losing 3-2 away from home (xG: ATM 1.84 – 0.89), leaving them in 18th place in La Liga with one point.
This is José Luis Mendilibar side’s first game at home this season, a place where they excel, with nine of their eleven wins in the league coming at the Ipurua last season.
Espanyol have looked woeful so far this season, gaining just one point in their three games, and deservedly sitting in 19th place in the league after a 3-0 home loss to newly-promoted Granada (xG: ESP 1.52 – 1.71 GRA) before the international break.
After the sale of last season’s top scorer Borja Iglesias in the summer, they look toothless in attack, generating a desperately low average of 0.67 xGF in their opening three fixtures.
Eibar’s high press is expected to cause a poor Espanyol team plenty of problems, and Infogol’s model gives Eibar a 54% chance (20/23) of gaining their first win of the season here, making the 19/20 (51%) on offer good value.
Newly-promoted Brescia have started the season relatively well, winning their opening game at Cagliari 1-0 (xG: CAG 1.14 – 1.37 BRE), before a 1-0 defeat to AC Milan (xG: MIL 1.84 – 0.86 BRE) last time out.
However, they have struggled to create good chances, with their only goal this season coming from the penalty spot, and will still be without hometown hero Mario Balotelli heading into this match.
Bologna had to wait until the 93rd minute to grab all three points against SPAL in their last game, but the 1-0 victory was fully deserved, as they created plenty of good chances throughout the match, generating a huge 3.47 xGF.
Bologna vs SPAL Shot Map
Siniša Mihajlović’s side were unfortunate in their opening game of the season, drawing 1-1 at Verona, but they were much better than their opponents in that game, holding Verona to just 0.12 xG (xG: VER 0.12 – 1.88 BOL).
Bologna have looked excellent so far this season, limiting their opponents to very little, while Riccardo Orsolini, Nicola Sansone and Mattia Destro have all displayed their attacking talents. Infogol’s model believes Bologna have a 54% (20/23) chance of winning this game, making the 7/5 (42%) available excellent value.
Hoffenheim enter this game in ninth place in the Bundesliga after gaining a good point away to Bayer Leverkusen last time out, although they were slightly fortunate to do so looking at the underlying numbers (xG: LEV 1.17 – 0.50 HOF).
Alfred Schreuder’s men have yet to find their stride in front of goal this season, averaging just 0.81 xGF per game, but are currently missing star striker Andrej Kramarić, although Ishak Belfodil and Robert Skov available for selection.
Despite a promising start to the season, Freiburg were humbled at home to Bundesliga newcomers FC Köln in their last game, losing 2-1, and deservedly so according to expected goals (xG: FRE 0.96 – 1.59 KOL).
They do look vulnerable defensively, allowing an average 1.51 xGA per game this season, making this match the perfect opportunity for Hoffenheim to regain their confidence in attack.
Hoffenheim vs Freiburg Probabilities
As shown in the graphic above, Hoffenheim are flagged up as tremendous value by the Infogol model, which gives them a 70% chance of winning against a Freiburg side expected to be in the relegation battle, making Hoffenheim the selection here at 4/6 (60%).
Eibar to win vs Espanyol @ 19/20
Bologna to win vs Brescia @ 7/5
Hoffenheim to win vs Freiburg @ 4/6
*All odds correct at time of posting