Liverpool have played three games now, and in all of them The Reds have earned a deserved lead before tiring and conceding a late consolation goal.
Klopp’s high intensity pressing game is difficult to sustain for 90 minutes, and it’s a known weakness that players will wilt late into a game.
It’s also been exasperated by the monster 53 game season Liverpool played last year, and the fact that Mane, Firmino and Salah have all just played summer tournaments for second year in the row.
So, if we can expect Liverpool to concede (a consolation) late on, then who is going to score that goal?
Well, Burnley’s Ashley Barnes has been in the form of his life and not just since the start of this season, but since January he’s manged to score 13 goals from 21 appearances.
That’s an incredible 0.53 xG per 90 minutes. To put that into perspective, over the same period Firmino achieved 0.47 xG per 90, Mane achieved 0.53 per 90 and Salah achieved 0.56 xG per 90.
Hop on the Ashley Barnes to score last train at 8/1.
While Liverpool were renowned for the number of clean sheets they kept last season, they weren’t able to keep it up for the entire season. In the first half of the PL season they conceded seven goals and the Both Teams To Score market clicked seven times, while in the second half of the campaign they conceded 15 times and BTTS clicked 10 times.
Burnley, meanwhile, saw their fortunes improve massively in the second half of the season. Having conceded 41 and scored just 17 in the first half, in the second half of the season they scored 28 and conceded 27 goals.
However, BTTS still clicked 12 times in that second half of the season after only happening 11 times in the first half.
BTTS has landed in five of the six Premier League matches that these teams have played this season, and also in the last two games that these teams have played against each other. BTTS at 20/23 is certainly looking very big to us.
You can’t overlook Liverpool’s class though, even with the work Burnley have done to improve their attacking transition from their obvious defensive base. I’m fully expecting Liverpool to get the win here and that’s why I’m tipping up the #WOP Liverpool to win, BTTS, and Ashley Barnes to score last at 25/1.
* All odds correct at time of posting.