Domestic football has finally returned, as the new Championship season gets underway this week.
Infogol’s analysts has taken a close look at this weekend’s fixtures, using expected goals (xG) data to select best value bets in the ‘Both Teams to Score’ market.
Here are their sweet selections.
Swansea vs Hull: Both Teams to Score (Yes) – 13/20
Swansea ended last season as the third-best attacking team in the Championship, racking up 72.8 expected goals (1.58 xGF per game), but their most productive players from 2018/19 (Daniel James and Oliver McBurnie) have both moved to Premier League clubs, leaving the Swans looking for replacements.
Hull have clung onto Jarrod Bowen and Kamil Grosicki so far in the transfer window, as both are linked with moves away from the club.
Bowen was the Tigers’ top scorer last season, scoring 22 goals from chances – equating to 17.5 xG, while Grosicki racked up an impressive 11.7 expected assists (xA).
Despite losing James and McBurnie, Swansea still look like a threat going forward with the likes of Borja Bastón and Joel Asoro both in contention to play in this match, and with Hull’s key attacking players currently staying at the club, Both Teams to Score ‘Yes’ is the selection here according to the Infogol model (57%).
Stoke vs QPR: Both Teams to Score (No) – 4/5
Nathan Jones dramatically improved Stoke’s defence after he was appointed in January, with the Potters conceding just 0.95 xGA per game, but their attacking troubles remained, generating a miserable 0.86 xGF per game.
Mark Warburton takes over at QPR for the upcoming campaign but may have a tough job on his hands at Loftus Road, especially after the sale of star player Luke Freeman to Sheffield United, who notched an impressive 12.7 xGI last season.
Nahki Wells and Tomer Hemed’s loan spells have ended and the sale of Matt Smith further deepens the Hoops’ problems in attack.
Stoke’s stingy defence and QPR’s struggles up top makes the 4/5 available for backing against both teams scoring a good bet, and Infogol’s model believes there is a 60% chance of BTTS ‘No’ in this match.
Brentford vs Birmingham: Both Teams to Score (No) – 19/20
Brentford are highly-rated by many this season and rightly so, with new arrivals Pontus Jansson and Ethan Pinnock strengthening a defence that was the fifth best in the Championship last season (52.8 xGA).
Birmingham may struggle in front of goal in the upcoming campaign, with top scorer Che Adams (0.47 non-pen xGI/90) moving to Southampton and creative midfielder Jota heading to city rivals Aston Villa.
The Blues have to hope new signing, Dan Crowley, settles in quickly to provide service for Lukas Jutkiewicz, but they may struggle to create chances until that happens.
We calculate BTTS ‘No’ as a 53% chance, so the Even money on offer is considered good value.
Swansea vs Hull: Both Teams to Score Yes – 13/20
Stoke vs QPR: Both Teams to Score No – 4/5
Brentford vs Birmingham: Both Teams to Score No – 19/20
Perhaps soon – almost certainly soon – the novelty of Bielsa may wear off, but it will have been fun while it lasted.
* All odds correct at time of posting.