AFCON 2019 Outright Betting: 17/2 Super Eagles can soar to glory

While Egypt have home advantage and Senegal squad looks immense, the value in the market is Nigeria according to Infogol's super smart model

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The bookmakers are undecided as to who should be favourites to win the Africa Cup of Nations, with Senegal and Egypt inseparable at the top of the market at 4/1. However, Infogol makes Egypt favourites for the tournament, giving them a 14.4% chance of glory, though that equates to around 6/1, meaning there is no value in backing Mohamed Salah and Co.

Senegal are rated as having an 11.3% chance of lifting the trophy, which equates to around 8/1, so there is no value in backing them either. Instead, we turn our attention to Nigeria.

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The Super Eagles have some good talent in their ranks, and showcased what they were capable of at the 2018 World Cup when they were very unfortunate not to get out of the group.

They have a pretty straight forward group too, and then have the capability to go deep into this competition given their strong spine. The 17/2 on offer for them to win the whole thing represents significant value. That amounts to around a 10.5% chance, and with the Infogol model giving them an 11% chance of doing so, they are worth backing.

Ghana are third-favourites (6/1) but represent little value at the price, and the same can be said for Morocco (15/2) and the Ivory Coast (9/1), with all three having good chances but expected to fall short.

Algeria hold some appeal at 12/1, which is a fair representation of their chances (7.2%), and they could well put on a show in the tournament.

Recommended Bets

Nigeria to win AFCON @ 17/2

Algeria to win AFCON @ 12/1

Goalscorer Betting

Unsurprisingly Liverpool pair Mohamed Salah (5/1) and Sadio Mané (7/1) head the top goalscorer market, followed by the likes of Odion Ighalo (NGA) and Nicolas Pépé (CIV) at 12/1.

Ghana’s all-time top scorer Asamoah Gyan is installed at 18/1, but hasn’t scored an international goal since 2017, and instead, a big-moment ex-Leicester player is fancied at big odds.

Given Nigeria are fancied to go well, Ahmed Musa is worth a closer look given he has scored in twice in both of the last two World Cups against top opposition, so he may thrive against opponents of a lesser stature.

He’s priced at 25/1 which looks big, as is Riyad Mahrez, who is Algeria’s go-to man. The Manchester City winger has an immense amount of talent, and is capable of some sensational individual performances, so he looks nicely priced also.

Recommended Bets

Ahmed Musa top scorer @ 25/1

Riyad Mahrez top scorer @ 25/1

*All odds correct at time of posting

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