Portugal have drawn four matches in a row, and nine of their last 15 stretching back to May 2018.
In that time, they’ve drawn almost twice as many games as they’ve won (five) and far more than they’ve lost (one), so we’re finding it hard to ignore the value offered by the Draw market here.
At the time of writing, the home side are odds-on (currently 4/7) to win in 90 minutes, with Switzerland priced at 9/2 and the Draw at 11/4. The market says Portugal will win, but the form suggests differently.
Pick: Match Odds – Draw – 11/4
This match will be Cristiano Ronaldo’s debut in the Nations League, and you know how much this man loves the spotlight, right?
On top of that, he scores lots and lots of goals for his country, many of which are opening goals or winning goals. Often, he’s the sole creative or incisive forward presence in the Portuguese side, and it may be no different on Wednesday night.
Fernando Santos’ team have struggled for goals recently, including in their two previous fixtures, a pair of Euros qualifiers in which Ronaldo was off his game. No-one is more likely to open the scoring for them than the Juventus man.
Switzerland aren’t a team you’d generally associate with prolific goalscoring, but prolific goalscorers is exactly what they’ve been over recent months.
Their last fixture, a Euros qualifier against Denmark, finished 3-3. In November, they destroyed World Cup third-placed team Belgium 5-2 in a match that sent Vladimir Petkovic’s side into the Nations League semi-finals, a result that came two months after a 6-0 thrashing of Iceland.
Since that World Cup elimination at the hands of Sweden in Russia, they’ve scored two or more goals in five of their six competitive games. It’s true that Portugal don’t concede many, and will surely set up with a defensive outlook, but they’ve looked unimpressive lately.
As a result, at 7/2 it’s difficult to be swayed from the idea that the Swiss might find the net twice or more on the night.
Odds correct at time of posting.