On Tuesday, Man City lost a game of football for the first time since January. In fact, it was the first time they’d failed to win a match in normal time since the Carabao Cup final (which they won on penalties anyway), an eight-game streak stretching back to February 24th.
Since the new year, they have been almost unstoppable, a machine pounding out win after win without mercy. They may have wobbled at Spurs in the Champions League midweek, but there’s no real evidence to suggest they’ll chalk up another “L” on Sunday. They’ve won ten of 15 away matches this season, conceding just nine goals.
As for Palace, their home form has been patchy in 2018-19.
If you include home games only, they are currently ranked 18 of 20 in the Premier League. Illogically, if you include away games only, they are 7th. At home against one of the best teams in world football, we’re not holding out much hope for the Eagles.
However, with City priced at 2/7 for the win, we’re going in search of a tiny bit more value. Which brings us to the WDW & Over/Under 3.5 goals market. Only twice across all competitions in 2018-19 has there been a Palace game at Selhurst Park that saw more than three goals scored: versus Man United in February and against Arsenal all the way back in October.
At Even money for City to win with a total of three or fewer match goals, that sounds good to us.
In 2019, only once have Liverpool failed to score two or more at home in the Premier League. For the most part, they have been prolific at Anfield during that time, with 19 goals in six (seven conceded) at their stadium since the new year. You have to go back to October 7th to find a match in which they failed to find the net at home in the league.
So, based on that evidence it’s fair to suggest they are highly likely to get at least one on Sunday.
As for Chelsea, they’re not particularly goal-rich on their travels in the league, “boasting” a Goals Scored figure of 23, lower than the likes of Watford, Leicester, Crystal Palace and even Arsenal. They’ve failed to score in three of their last five away PL games.
What conclusion to draw from that? Well, Liverpool will probably score one or more goal, while there’s every chance Chelsea won’t even get one. With the Reds priced at 9/5 to win to nil, and having rediscovered the concept of a clean sheet at Porto midweek, we’ll take that.
Odds correct at time of posting.