In their 11 Premier League matches in 2019, Chelsea have triggered “BTTS No” on seven occasions. If you expand that to all competitions, it’s 15 from 21, or 71%.
The trend is obvious, at least over the past four months: BTTS No is far more likely than BTTS Yes. This is perhaps why “No” is priced at 8/13 and “Yes” at 5/4, but as part of a Same Game Multi, we’re more than happy to take a shortish price for the first leg of the bet.
If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll have read that it’s likely only one team will score in this match, if there are goals at all.
We reckon Chelsea will take three points from this one, considering among other things that Brighton are fairly poor away from home – they’ve lost 10 of their 15 away fixtures in the league this season. By that logic, taking into account the “BTTS No” likelihood, if Chelsea win they could well win to nil.
However, that’s not the only reason we’re hanging our hats on the Away Team Under 0.5 goals market. There’s the possibility of a nil-all for a start, but there’s also the fact Brighton have only managed 15 league goals on the road all season.
Oh, and Chelsea have only conceded 10 goals at Stamford Bridge in the PL in 2018-19 (six clean sheets from their last nine at home), putting them level with Liverpool as the meanest home defence in the division.
Okay, we’ve been pretty conservative so far in this SGM, which is not a bad thing when it comes to multiples. But now we’re going to look for a bit of value.
Many in search of value will have a look at the goalscorer markets, and that’s exactly what we’ll do here. If you want to play it safe, you might look at Eden Hazard to score anytime (10/11), which would give you a SGM treble at just over 2/1 if combined with the previous two picks. Not bad, but in this case we’re going to go for Hazard to score first at 3/1.
The Belgian has 13 goals in 30 league games in 2018-19, and at home against a team that doesn’t travel well you’d have to expect him to get on the scoresheet. He’s joint-favourite to open the scoring, so we’re putting our faith in him doing so.