Spain haven’t failed to score in a match since a 2-0 defeat to Italy in the 2016 European Championships Round of 16, since when they’ve only lost three games from 31. So you’d imagine they’re likely to win this one, which is probably why they’re priced at 1/33 to beat Malta.
Back that if you really really want to, but we’re looking for a bit more value. Last time out, against the Faroe Islands, Malta got their first competitive win since June 2013, so the confidence will be flowing among the home team’s players. They won’t win, but it’s possible they might actually grab a goal in what’s likely to be a fairly heavy loss.
Given Spain’s goalscoring consistency and their general tendency to win, we think there’s value in the Spain to win and Over 3.5 total match goals market at 4/7.
Verdict: Spain & Over 3.5 @ 4/7
Barely a year has gone by since 2013 when Ireland and Georgia haven’t met and Tuesday night is no different. It was a game to forget in Gibraltar for Mick McCarthy 2.0 but there’s only one thing that counts in qualifiers and that’s results. Luckily, Ireland’s home record has been solid against the Georgians and we’ve yet to lose any home points in European, World Cup or International Friendlies against Tuesday’s visitors.
What we’ve also not done is score many goals with the last three victories all coming by one-goal margins (1-0,1-0 & 2-1) with only a four-goal friendly fiesta in 2013 bucking that trend.
Georgia opened their campaign with a 0-2 loss at home to Switzerland on Saturday but keep the visitors goal-less until the 56th minute and will no doubt look to frustrate Ireland tomorrow night.
If the home side’s performance is anything to go by last Saturday, we don’t expect any intricate passing or free-flowing football to unlock the Georgian defence but so expect us to get a goal and that maybe enough. This is no time to get too clever so a win at 8/13 is where we’re at.
Verdict: Rep of Ireland to win @ 8/13
Romania are good when they play in Romania. Very good, in fact. Their last five matches at home – four wins and one draw – have resulted in four clean sheets.
You have to go back to 2016 to find a Romanian home loss in competitive fixtures, a year that, funnily enough, is the last time Faroe Islands managed to earn an away win. It’s unlikely, therefore, that we’re going to see anything other than a home “W” on Tuesday evening.
The only question is by how much, but we’re not going to look at a handicap in this case. Considering Romania’s clean sheet record, we think they’re likely to take this one without allowing the brave Faroes to score.
Verdict: Romania to Win to Nil @ 1/2
While familiarity might breed contempt in the other Group D encounter – particularly if Ireland don’t win – it’s been 20 years since these sides faced off in any sort of international. That’s a pity – and not just because we’ve no meaningful stats to try and hang this leg of the acca on.
While Switzerland were busy picking up three points in Tbilisi, the Danes were left hanging in Kosova. where they played out a 2-2 friendly draw, thanks to a 90th minute equaliser from Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg.
Denmark have only failed to score twice in their last six internationals – ironically both against Ireland who crushed their will to live under Martin O’Neill. Switzerland meanwhile have hit 10 goals in their last five games, only failing to score bizarrely enough in a friendly home defeat by Qatar. There should be enough motivation and firepower on show here for both sides to get among the goals at least.
Verdict: Both teams to score @ Evens