It’s an FA Cup fixture but the Premier League could have a big bearing on the outcome of Wednesday’s game.
Southampton are battling to stay in the top tier, while Derby County are fighting a rear-guard action to get into it through the play-off places at least.
The result could come down to who fancies a distracting FA Cup run more, with a winnable tie against Accrington Stanley up next for the victors.
But they must get through Wednesday night’s replay first…
1. Winning margin: Score draw @ 7/2 over 90 minutes
Southampton should really have avoided this extra game ahead of the weekend clash with Everton, after they let a 2-0 lead to slip to Frank Lampard’s Championship side.
The knee-jerk reaction would be to plump for the home side, but the waters are a little murkier where the Saints are concerned particularly when you consider Ralph Hasenhuttl’s less than enthusiastic comments about this game.
The only ‘positive’ the Saints manager can take from this FA Cup replay is that three of his suspended players will be able to face Everton at the weekend. We could be in for a game of it if Derby sniff weakness.
Neither side will fancy extra time and penalties if it comes to it. But circumstances dictate that the 7/2 about a score draw over 90 mins could be the value play.
2. Nathan Redmond anytime goalscorer @ 9/4
Republic of Ireland striker Shane Long is high on life right about now after scoring his first Premier League goal since last April in the 2-1 win over Leicester at the weekend.
But before talk of the Golden Boot takes hold, it was just his fourth PL goal in 19 months at the club. And while the old cliché tells us that goals are like late buses for mis-firing strikers, we won’t be banking on a follow up anytime soon.
Nathan Redmond looks a more attractive price at 9/4 to score anytime over the 90 mins. His opening brace against Frank Lampard’s side means it’s four goals in his last six games. A return from Redmond looks a safer bet than Shane Long.
3. Both sides to score @ 3/4
We’ve already gone for a score draw but we’ll add a little insurance in case both sides commit football hari kari to avoid extra-time and a dreaded penalty shoot-out if it’s still all square as ‘normal time’ approaches.
Derby don’t do clean sheets – just two in their last 25 games in all comps and it’s a big ask of them to hold out for 90 minutes on Wednesday – especially if they’re piling forward looking for a result.
Southampton have only failed to score – or on the flip side, concede – in five of their last 26 games in all competitions since this season started.
If both sides take that form into this game – we should see both goalkeepers picking the ball out on the onion sack within 90 minutes to nick us a few quid.
*Prices correct at time of publication