Arsenal v Burnley: Arsenal – 1/2
The price is short, but this should be a sure thing on a momentous day for Arsenal. It’s the last home game of Arsene Wenger’s 22 year tenure and we expect it’ll feel more like a testimonial. The celebrations are likely to overshadow the minimal amount either side has to play for, both having already guaranteed Europa League football next season.
However, the Gunners will want to mark the occasion with the result it deserves. They also bring in an impressive home record, with 14 wins from their 18 league games at the Emirates this season. It’s hard to see Burnley adding themselves to the elite selection of Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd who’ve left North London with points this season. Take the Gunners here.
Preston North End v Burton Albion: Over 2.5 Goals – 4/6
This game will have major consequences at both ends of the table. Preston must win to have a shot at the last playoff spot and it’s close to a win-or-bust game in Burton’s late push to avoid relegation – a draw would leave their fate hanging on other results. This can only lead to goals. Preston’s games haven’t been goal-heavy this year, averaging 2.2 per game, but Burton have the leakiest defence in the league, conceding nine more than any other team. Their games average 2.58 goals as well, and, given the circumstance, it’s hard not to see some value in the Over 2.5 goals price of 4/6.
Gillingham v Plymouth: Over 2.5 Goals – Evens
It’s a similar situation for Plymouth against Gillingham. They must win to have any chance of making the playoffs as they sit three points behind Charlton, who are also plus six on goal difference over the Pilgrims. Argyle need to win this and win well while hoping that Rochdale do them a favour against the Addicks. Gillingham, on the other hand, have very little to play for having secured their League One status for next season, meaning the pressure is off and the players can try to end the season on a high note. This has the potential to be an open, high-scoring encounter with neither team having a much reason to sit back, so the Over 2.5 price of evens looks very generous.
Coventry v Morecambe: Coventry – Evens
This game is another playoff chaser versus relegation candidate. Coventry sit in the playoffs places, three points clear of Mansfield in eighth, needing only a point to guarantee their spot. At the other end of the table Morecambe hover two points above the relegation zone but with a vastly better goal difference than Barnet, the only team who can overtake them, so a point would be enough to secure their Football League status too.
The price on the draw is unusually short at 6/5, suggesting plenty of people think both teams will settle for a point. However, there is an incentive for Coventry to go for the win as it could get them an easier tie in the playoffs and home advantage in the second leg. If this were a normal game the draw would be priced slightly over the 2/1, and Coventry’s price would be around 1/2. Getting over twice the price purely because a draw theoretically suits both teams seems too good to turn down. Back the Sky Blues at even money.
* All odds correct at time of posting.