Tottenham and Liverpool have had an odd relationship in recent times. Spurs have finished above the Reds in six of the past seven seasons, but have rarely beaten them in that period.
Of the last 13 meetings, Tottenham have won just two (with no wins in five years), drawn four and lost seven. Get your house on Liverpool to win at 23/10, then?
I wouldn’t. They might have put seven past Haribo in midweek, but Spurs got the better result with a point in Madrid. Tottenham’s home league form has been better than the results have been too.
They may have picked up their first Wembley league win against Bournemouth last weekend, but on the expected goals numbers they definitely deserved to beat Burnley and Swansea, and virtually matched Chelsea.
In fact, Spurs’ only heavy home defeat on the underlying numbers since the start of 2016/17 was against Liverpool. But the Reds remain a hard team to judge on the stats, especially away from home. They deserved to comfortably beat Newcastle and didn’t, but picked up three points at Leicester which their performance didn’t merit. Liverpool are not the gambler’s friend.
They may well be confident of getting a result though, as they have the best record in the mini league of the big clubs since the start of last season.
If you think the Reds will head north with three points on Sunday evening, then at least let me direct you to the Win Markets, and the ‘Win & Over 1.5 Goals’ section.
Liverpool have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road this season, and Tottenham are the league’s highest scoring team who aren’t from Manchester or Salford.
Therefore if Klopp’s boys are to prevail, it will likely mean the game features more than a single goal. You can get 11/4 for Liverpool to win and for there to be at least two goals in total. This offers you a better return than the standard 23/10 for the Reds to triumph. You’re welcome.
Another bet worth investigating in this one is the Both Teams To Score market. Although the price for both sides finding the net is a skinny 8/15, history suggests it is likely to happen.
Since August 2014, Liverpool have had the most Premier League matches where both teams scored, with 69, and Spurs aren’t far behind on 65. It also happened in all five of the Reds’ away matches against their big six rivals last term. It would probably have happened this season too had Sadio Mané scored instead of introducing Ederson’s face to his boot.
It looks as if @WWESheamus was impressed with Sadio Mane’s flying boot to the face of Ederson Moraes yesterday… https://t.co/osCYZDDxoe
— Paddy Power (@paddypower) September 10, 2017
Both teams have scored when these two have squared up (Spurs and Liverpool, not Mané and Ederson) in four of the last six meetings too. Go on, have a few quid on it.
As we’ve established both teams will definitely score, we should look at which player will do so first. It’s no surprise to see Harry Kane leads the way at 3/1. The England striker has packed all of his league goals into September for some reason though. It’s a crazy strategy if you ask me, so who else should we bet on?
Harry Kane PL performance by month:
August – 2.43 xG, no goals.
September – 2.40 xG, 6 goals.#finishing ¯_(ツ)_/¯— Andrew Beasley (@BassTunedToRed) October 2, 2017
Dele Alli, who is 13/2 to open the scoring, leads the way in the ‘due a goal’ stakes. He has had 12 shots in his last five league matches without finding the back of the net. Plus if he scores, the Liverpool Twitter bores can drone on some more about how Brendan Rodgers should’ve signed him. A win-win for all concerned, I’m sure you’ll agree.
Brendan Rodgers says that he met with Delle Alli and thought a deal would be done to bring him to Liverpool. pic.twitter.com/KhioO9VgXj
— Paddy Power (@paddypower) January 17, 2016
Daniel Sturridge has had 14 shots in the league since he last scored, though of course very few teams are as open as Arsenal were when he last netted. He’s joint-favourite with Roberto Firmino on the Liverpool side of the first scorer market for this match. The latter is more likely to play though, and scored in midweek so should be full of confidence.
As for other markets where the teams might be due something, may I draw your attention to the Match Specials. Venture here and you can get 5/2 that a penalty will be awarded.
Over the past eight seasons, Tottenham’s league games have featured a penalty every 4.1 matches on average. However, Spurs have now gone 12 games without seeing one either for or against them.
Throw in the comedic nature of Liverpool’s defending, and I think there’s a fair chance Andre Marriner will point to the spot on Sunday afternoon. I wouldn’t stake my life on it – Marriner is stingier than average when it comes to awarding penalties – but I won’t be stunned if Kane is lining up against Mignolet from 12 yards.
Like most big games, this is a tricky one to call. Liverpool are good in tougher matches, but often struggle on the road, whilst Spurs have been playing well at home but their results haven’t been great. I’ll sit on the fence, and predict a draw.
More specifically a score draw, which is available at 16/5. You can buy me a drink with your winnings.
Shoot over to the latest Premier League odds on PaddyPower.com