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Italy are probably the strangest team in international football. Having failed to qualify for both this year’s World Cup and the equally sportwash-tastic one in Russia four years ago, they softened the blow by winning Euro 2020 in between. They also finished third in the previous edition of the Nations League.
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How seriously any team takes this competition – particularly when these fixtures come directly after a long, hard season – is hard to know. Italy drew their opener against Germany last weekend, then beat Hungary 2-1 in midweek. As for Gareth Southgate’s boys, they lost very disappointingly to the Hungarians before coming home with a point from Germany. This fixture brings up the half way marker in the group so England could definitely do with a win to keep their hopes alive.
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Saturday 7.45pm: England v Italy
TV: Channel 4 and All 4
The Draw
History shows there is rarely much between these teams. The previous three meetings all ended 1-1, though the Italians won on penalties when they last played, as you probably remember.
Prior to those three draws the sides each had a 2-1 win, with Italy’s in the 2014 World Cup rather than in a friendly, so better. Before that we have to go back to Euro 2012, with dour Hodgeball, Andrea Pirlo running the show and penalties once again.
Long story short, the last time England beat Italy their starting line-up contained the might of Jack Butland, Tom Cleverley and Andy Carroll, so what chance have the current day clowns got?
Quite a bit, if you ask Paddy, who has them down as favourites. With Italy’s form that’s understandable, as their victories since winning the Euros have been narrow against Belgium, Turkey and Hungary and only emphatic over Lithuania (big whoop, wanna fight about it?).
But as patchy as their form is, they’ve still only lost three of their last 46 matches. With Southgate likely to field a back three, it’s fair to expect very few goals at either end. As such, The Draw looks a good value selection for the match.
Both Teams To Score
However, while there might not be much goal mouth action, both teams should find the net. They have in the last five meetings as discussed above, and they also have in five of England’s six matches since the 2018 World Cup which were against teams currently in the top 10 of the FIFA rankings, as Italy are.
Across their last eight such matches, the Three Lions have conceded an average of 2.6 clear-cut chances and always at least one, so Roberto Mancini’s boys should have a decent opportunity or two to get on the scoresheet. As the Italians have lost their air of defensive invincibility, back Both Teams To Score.
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Over 10.5 Corners
Regular readers will be aware that there are rarely many corners in international matches. England’s 1-1 draw with Germany ended their run of games which paid out on Under 10.5 Corners at the 12-match mark though.
Games have tended to be a little more corner-heavy when when Southgate’s side have faced a top 10 nation, too. This match might not better the 13 corners that featured in the Three Lions’ last game but there should be Over 10.5 Corners at least.
Over 3.5 Cards
These teams haven’t historically drawn many bookings in their meetings. Italy picked up five yellow cards at Wembley last summer but less than one per game in their five clashes with England prior to that. The home side have averaged exactly one per game across their last 23 matches so there’s no reason to think they’ll pick up many here based on that record either.
However, there’s only man who’s going to decide how many cards we’ll get and Szymon Marciniak is his name. If you think Mike Dean likes dishing out yellows then get a load of this guy. Marciniak averages just under four per game across his 530-match career. In his one previous Italy game there were five bookings, and seven in his only England match to date. With Marciniak as referee, a bet on Over 3.5 Cards always looks wise.
England v Italy tips
The Draw
Both Teams To Score
Over 10.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Cards
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