*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
And so, it all comes down to this. 370 of the 380 matches which make up the 2021/22 Premier League season are in the bank and only 10 remain, with this the most important of them all. A Manchester City victory will ensure they are champions for the fourth time in the last five seasons.
Anything less and they stand a good chance of going down in history as the team which blew a 14-point lead, for that was the advantage they held over Liverpool on January 15th. The Reds are only one point off the top and poised to pounce should City fail to get past Villa.
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Jurgen Klopp will have his fingers crossed that Sgt Gerrard’s Former Reds Club Band can get at least a point at the Etihad, with the likes of Philippe Coutinho and Danny Ings aiming to help their former side.
Let’s be honest though. Villa aren’t going to achieve the unthinkable, are they? In reality, almost certainly not and especially as they have played on Thursday night when City have had the whole week to prepare. But the numbers show we would be foolish to write off the possibility entirely.
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The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com right nowManchester City v Aston Villa
Sunday, May 22: 4.00pm
Sky Sports Main Event
Handicap Betting: Manchester City to win -2
The Cityzens’ record at home has been very impressive as usual this season, but they have dropped points in two of their last six matches there. Defensive injuries may mean Pep Guardiola has to field a back four which won’t have started together very often too.
While Liverpool supporters would prefer City to have a harder match on the final day, they do have an odd record in 2021/22. They dropped points home and away to Crystal Palace and Southampton, two teams who are close to Villa in the table.
There’s also the fact that the visitors on Sunday have a deceptively decent record on the road since Steven Gerrard took over. On a points-per-game basis they have been the fifth best away team in the division, and only Wolves and City have conceded fewer goals in the Stevie G era too.
They have also only lost twice away from Villa Park by more than a single goal, showing they can keep games close, even if they have been beaten too often for their liking.
But now for the reality check. Here comes the science bit, concentrate.
The Villans won at Manchester United, but that hardly tells us much about any side, does it? That victory aside they’ve lost away to the rest of the top seven, and they’ll be playing the masters of ripping lesser teams such as Leeds and Arsenal to shreds.
City have scored four-or-more-goals in seven of their home league games this season and five on the road for good measure. Liverpool have had seven 4+ goal matches and no other team in the top flight more than five. Guardiola’s side are streets ahead on this and with a week off when Villa had to play just three days earlier, City can rack up a cricket score to beat the -2 handicap.
Over/Under Goals Markets: Over 3.5
There’s every chance the home side will take care of our ‘over 3.5 goals’ selection on their own. We shouldn’t rule out Villa scoring to make it even likelier though.
In the Gerrard era, they have played 12 away league games and have only been held to nil in three of them. City had John Stones and Kyle Walker back in training in midweek (which was odd considering Guardiola ruled them out for the season just 10 days earlier) but with a patched-up backline at one end and red-hot attack at the other, there should be over 3.5 goals.
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Over 12.5 corners
There are only five teams in the Premier League who have had at least 100 corners away from home, and just one of them has also conceded a century: Aston Villa be thy name.
Ignore City’s recent tussle with Liverpool at the Etihad and their last 10 home league games against mere mortals have seen them average almost 10 corners, never mind what the opposition have offered. These records suggest even the 12.5 corners market won’t be able to hold these teams, so add over 12.5 to your Bet Builder this weekend.
Under 2.5 Cards
The last day of the season is like the last day of term at school. Everyone is in a great mood and happy to see the day out with minimum fuss. In the final 10 Premier League matches last season there were 32 yellow cards and one red. The season before? 32 yellow cards and one red.
It seems reasonable to expect about three per game then. If Gerrard was playing you could be certain that he’d pick up a booking to try to help Liverpool out but his players aren’t going to be anywhere near as bothered. We’ll take under 2.5 cards and wait for the goals and the league title to roll in for City.
Man City v Aston Villa Bet Builder tips
Handicap Betting: Manchester City to win -2
Over/Under Goals Markets: Over 3.5
Over 12.5 corners
Under 2.5 Cards
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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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