*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
We’re well into squeaky bum time at the business end of the Premier League season, and Thursday is a massive day of fixtures at the wrong end of the table. Everton could secure safety as they host Crystal Palace, which would leave Burnley and Leeds in a straight dog-fight to stay up.
The Clarets currently occupy the final relegation place, but have a game in hand over Jesse Marsch’s Leeds United, away at Aston Villa.
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Ahead of Thursday night’s match, our footie tipster Shane O’Brien has leafed through the form-book and delved into the stats to pick out a four-leg Bet Builder. Let’s take a look at his verdict…
*A Bet Builder with these four bets pays at approximately 39/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com right nowThursday 18th May: Aston Villa v Burnley
TV: BT Sport 1, 8pm Kick-Off
Burnley to win
Aston Villa were comfortable winners at Turf Moor when these two sides faced off just two weeks ago, but football can be a funny old game. Burnley slipped into the bottom three following Leeds’ last-gasp equaliser against Brighton on Sunday, meaning the Clarets require at least one point from their last two games to have a chance of retaining their Premier League status.
Burnley, who pushed Champions League-chasing Tottenham all the way on Sunday afternoon in a 1-0 defeat, simply have more to play for than a Villa side that sits comfortably in mid-table.
Villa, to their credit, have not played like a side that has nothing to play for, but they have won just two of their last nine games, and just one of their last five games at Villa Park.
Burnley, on the other hand, had taken 13 points from a possible 18 prior to their last two defeats and should be able to guarantee their safety if they can rediscover that form. They can take a giant stride towards survival on Thursday night.
Maxwel Cornet to score anytime
Maxwel Cornet will have a key role to play if Burnley are to beat the drop next Sunday. If they fail to retain their Premier League status, a lot of clubs will be looking at securing his services on the cheap.
Cornet, who is the club’s top scorer this season with eight goals, has been excellent since moving to Turf Moor in the summer, with his late strike in last month’s 3-2 win over Everton proving crucial in the relegation battle. The Ivorian also netted a late consolation against Thursday’s opponents in the 3-1 defeat two weeks ago and was Burnley’s biggest threat in the narrow defeat at Spurs. He can prove the difference at Villa Park.
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Over 10.5 corners
No Premier Club has conceded more corners this season than Burnley. The Clarets concede an average of 6.8 corners per game, well above the league average of 5.2 per game. Burnley games have also witnessed an average of 11.5 corners per game this season – again the highest record in the league. Michael Jackson’s side have conceded a whopping 47 in their last six league games at a rate of almost eight per game, while they have conceded 32 in their last four games away from Turf Moor.
There is nothing to suggest that they won’t concede a similar number of corners on Thursday night against a Villa side that wins an average of five corners per game. Villa also concede more corners per game than the league average and are likely to offer Burnley a few set pieces of their own.
Aston Villa to have five or more shots on target
Burnley boast by far the best defensive record of any side in the bottom six, but the Clarets still face a high number of shots on target per game. Jackson’s side have conceded six fewer goals than Manchester United but face a high average of 4.78 shots on target per game. They have faced 31 efforts on target in their last six games at a rate of over five per game and are likely to face a similar number on Thursday night.
Villa average more than four efforts on goal per game and are likely to dominate both possession and territory on home soil. Burnley may have to weather a few storms if they are to come away with a vital three points.
Aston Villa v Burnley Bet Builder Tips
- Burnley to win
- Maxwel Cornet to score anytime
- Over 10.5 corners
- Aston Villa to have five or more shots on target
*A Bet Builder with these four bets pays at approximately 39/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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