*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
You might well look at this and wonder why Chelsea – the WSL champions and two-time victors in this exact fixture this season are a touch under evens to win in 90 minutes. It’s a fair query, but the context is important.
Man City were expected to contend this year, but after just one win in their opening five games of the season, that dream was as good as dead in the water by October. After that skid, their only two other losses this season came against Chelsea.
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Four-nil back in November and one-nil in February mean that they’re going to be installed as favourites here, but let me tell you that these two are far more closely matched than you’d believe. Since Valentine’s Day, Man City led the WSL in terms of Expected Goals despite playing a game less than Chelsea – and they were boasting an Expected Goals Against tally of a goal less than Chelsea, too.
Yes, in their head-to-heads this year, they’ve been clear-cut on who’s better – but these examples of these teams are yet to face-off, and that’s a unique slant on an FA Cup final. Thankfully, I’m here to give you the inside track with a Bet Builder.
*A Bet Builder with these four bets pays at approximately 24/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP
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Sunday 2.30pm: Chelsea v Manchester City
TV: BBC One, BBC iPlayer and BBC Sport Website
Man City to Lift the Trophy
It won’t sit well with a lot of people, but it does feel like we’re seeing City finally take that step towards sustained WSL glory because they’re simply outplaying teams on a consistent basis across every area of the pitch rather than relying on star power.
On a pitch the size of Wembley, I’d be pretty confident they’ll turn over Chelsea eventually – it just might take extras to get there, so I’ll take the insurance of it going beyond the 90 and Man City to Lift the Trophy.
Over 2.5 Goals
City and Chelsea have scored in every one of their games since the aforementioned crossroads in the league season and I don’t believe either will shy away from that level of attacking impetus simply because of a Cup final.
And of the 17 games in question, these two combined to score twice or more in 14 of them, with Chelsea struggling only against the two Birmingham sides. In fact, these sides would land Over 2.5 Goals on 11 of those 17 occasions by themselves.
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Sam Kerr to Have Two or More Shots on Target
Chelsea have played nine WSL games since mid-February and Sam Kerr has recorded multiple shots on target in eight of them – I assure you, this is a borderline-mandatory inclusion into your Bet Builder. Kerr is not only a freak of nature but she’s also reveling in form this year with an improved supporting cast around her.
City could well be the best side in the division at keeping possession but they do take risks in the final third and won’t sit in, meaning Kerr will get clear-cut chances in space simply because an ideology trumps practicality for a club that are starting to see the benefits. Kerr to Have Two or More Shots on Target feels a smart play.
Khadija Shaw to Have Two or More Shots on Target
City are more expansive than Chelsea but they are ever-so-slightly one dimensional when they play through central areas. Shaw is generally on the end of those ten-pass open play sequences and finishes with aplomb.
She has 15 shots on target since mid-February and that’s six more than next-best Georgia Stanway. If we’re relying on Kerr’s individual brilliance, we’re also banking on Shaw’s consistency. Shaw to Have Two or More Shots on Target rounds us off here.
Women’s FA Cup Final tips
Man City to Lift the Trophy
Over 2.5 Goals
Sam Kerr to Have Two or More Shots on Target
Khadija Shaw to Have Two or More Shots on Target
*A Bet Builder with these four bets pays at approximately 24/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP
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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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