*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
By this stage of the season, it becomes clear how good or bad most teams are. Manchester City and Liverpool? Very, very good. Norwich City and Watford? Very, very bad. Manchester United? Very, very bad and it’s very, very funny.
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But Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal? Very, very hard to say. They’ve both had winning runs of at least four consecutive league matches in 2021/22, but they’ve also had two streaks of three straight losses.
They’ve also been the worst two sides in the mini league of the big six clubs this term, and this is the final fixture there. But there is far more at stake than avoiding embarrassment at the next meeting of the European Super League, this game will be crucial in the battle for Champions League qualification.
*A Bet Builder with these four bets pays at approximately 24/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Tottenham to Win
Arsenal are undoubtedly in the driving seat for a top four finish. They will still hold a one-point advantage if they lose here, and though Tottenham have the easier fixtures to follow, the Gunners’ games don’t look too daunting.
And wouldn’t it be sweet for them to clinch their first Champions League spot since 2016 with a win at the ground of their bitterest rivals? That season was also the last time they finished above Spurs, by the way.
The problem for Mikel Arteta is that this is very much a derby which has favoured the home side in recent times. The 19 league meetings in the last decade have seen a single away victory (1-0 to the Arsenal in 2014) and six draws. Each side has won at the other in the League Cup in the last seven years, but north London has almost always been painted in the colours of the home team, whoever that happens to be.
Tottenham’s home performances under Antonio Conte have – at least on the stats – generally been pretty good. The expected goal stats are more heavily favour in Spurs than Paddy’s odds are, so as such I must go for a home win here.
Over 2.5 Goals
The records of north London’s finest suggests that we should see plenty of goalmouth action on Thursday evening.
Going into the midweek fixtures, no team in the Premier League has seen a greater proportion of their home matches pay out on over 2.5 goals than Spurs have. Eight of the last 10 league games at the imaginatively titled Tottenham Hotspur Stadium have seen at least three goals, and six of them four-or-more.
Arsenal haven’t been quite so reliable – in so many ways in recent years – with three of their last six matches on the road ending 1-0 in one direction or the other.
But the NLD has tended to feature several goals of late and with Tottenham having to come out and attack to get the win they need this should be another clash which contains over 2.5 goals.
Under 10.5 Corners
These teams are not just bottom of the big six mini league for results but also for corners.
You have to go back to early December for the last league match at Tottenham which featured more than 10 corners, and only three teams in the division have seen fewer games with fewer than 11 this season.
And while there were 14 in Arsenal’s recent loss at Southampton, plenty of their other away games have been light on corners, so select under 10.5 for your Bet Builder.
Tottenham to Have Over 2.5 Cards & Arsenal to Have Over 2.5 Cards
Paul Tierney is a very interesting choice of referee for what is certain to be a tense fixture. In his previous game at Tottenham, a 2-2 draw with Liverpool, he failed to send off Harry Kane for a two footed lunge but did dismiss Andy Robertson once the VAR had whispered sweet nothings in his earpiece.
What’s more – and brace yourself, conspiracy theorists – Tierney awarded a penalty to Crystal Palace the last time he took charge of an Arsenal match. He changed his mind on that too, having initially let play go on after the challenge on Wilf Zaha.
Where plenty of cards are more or less guaranteed in the (say) Merseyside derby, it has been a bit up and down in north London. Going back through the last six, the number of yellow cards reads: three, five, three, eight, eight and five (plus a red).
But this is set to be one of the most fiercely contested matches between Tottenham and Arsenal for years. As Tierney has already had five matches this season in which he has shown at least three cards to the home and away sides, we’ll pick both teams to get over 2.5 cards here.
Tottenham v Arsenal betting tips:
Tottenham to Win
Over 2.5 Goals
Under 10.5 Corners
Tottenham to Have Over 2.5 Cards
Arsenal to Have Over 2.5 Cards
*A Bet Builder with these four bets pays at approximately 24/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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